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Summary for Hurricane Juliette (EP1/EP112019)
2019-09-02 22:35:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JULIETTE BECOMES A HURRICANE... ...THE FIFTH ONE OF THE EAST PACIFIC SEASON... As of 3:00 PM MDT Mon Sep 2 the center of Juliette was located near 17.2, -113.3 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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Hurricane Juliette Public Advisory Number 7
2019-09-02 22:35:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Sep 02 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 022035 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Juliette Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 300 PM MDT Mon Sep 02 2019 ...JULIETTE BECOMES A HURRICANE... ...THE FIFTH ONE OF THE EAST PACIFIC SEASON... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 113.3W ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Juliette was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 113.3 West. Juliette is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). The hurricane is expected to continue at this forward speed toward the northwest or west-northwest for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is anticipated for the next day or two. Weakening is forecast to begin by Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Juliette Forecast Advisory Number 7
2019-09-02 22:34:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 02 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 022034 TCMEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 2100 UTC MON SEP 02 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 113.3W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 70SE 30SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 113.3W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 112.9W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.9N 114.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.6N 115.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.1N 117.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.6N 118.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.1N 122.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 22.5N 127.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 24.0N 131.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 113.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Juliette Graphics
2019-09-02 16:42:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 02 Sep 2019 14:42:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 02 Sep 2019 15:31:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 6
2019-09-02 16:41:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Sep 02 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 021441 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 900 AM MDT Mon Sep 02 2019 Juliette is nearing hurricane strength. An increase in deep convection that was noted with the previous advisory has persisted, and recent microwave data shows that the cyclone has developed a well-defined inner-core. Given the observed increase in Juliette's organization, the initial intensity has been increased to 60 kt, which is supported by the latest UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON fixes. Juliette is forecast to quickly strengthen today, and rapid intensification is a real possibility during the next 24 hours or so given the seemingly favorable environment and the presence of an low- to mid-level eye in recent microwave data. Beyond 48 h, the cyclone should begin to weaken as it moves over cooler SSTs and encounters a drier surrounding environment. The NHC intensity forecast is near the multi-model consensus from 72 h through the end of the period, but there is a fair amount of uncertainty as to how quickly Juliette will weaken since it will be moving along a sharp SST gradient. A track farther north than the NHC forecast would likely cause Juliette to weaken faster than anticipated, while a farther south track could allow it to maintain its strength for longer. Very little change was made to the track forecast. A deep-layer ridge to the northeast of Juliette should keep it on a generally west-northwestward to northwestward heading for the next 3 or 4 days days. The track guidance is particularly tightly clustered through that period and confidence in the forecast is high. The ridge could amplify by day 5 and cause Juliette to turn westward, as shown most notably by the ECMWF, though confidence is a little lower at that time. The NHC forecast is very near TVCE and HCCA at all times and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 16.7N 112.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 17.6N 114.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 18.4N 115.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 18.9N 116.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 19.4N 118.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 20.6N 121.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 22.5N 126.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 23.5N 130.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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