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Hurricane Juliette Forecast Advisory Number 15
2019-09-04 22:37:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 042037 TCMEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 2100 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 117.8W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 117.8W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 117.5W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.0N 118.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.1N 120.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.1N 122.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N 124.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.6N 128.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 23.2N 131.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 22.8N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 117.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 14
2019-09-04 16:48:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 041448 TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 800 AM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019 Juliette continues to look somewhat ragged in conventional infrared satellite imagery this morning. A warm spot, which appears to be an eye, has been showing up intermittently during the past several hours. A 0914Z AMSR microwave pass indicated the eyewall was open in the south quadrant, so all indications are that additional weakening has taken place. The latest subjective and objective T-numbers provided by the satellite fix agencies also suggest weakening. Based on this input, the initial intensity is lowered to 85 kt for this advisory. The initial motion for this advisory is west-northwestward, or 295/5 kt. Juliette is being steered by the circulation around a mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge extending over the northeastern Pacific from the southwestern United States. This feature is expected to steer Juliette west-northwestward at a slightly faster forward motion during the next few days. Toward the end of the forecast period, a westward motion is forecast as Juliette weakens, and likely loses most of its deep convection. The weakening system will be steered by the low-level easterly flow. The latest track forecast has been shifted slightly to the right of the previous forecast package. This more closely follows the latest trusted guidance, especially the most recent NOAA HFIP HCCA and the TVCE corrected variable consensus model. Cooler oceanic sea surface temperatures, reduced ocean heat content, an intruding dry, stable, surrounding environment, and increasing southwesterly shear should cause steady weakening of the cyclone during the next 5 days. The latest intensity forecast continues to show a slightly faster weakening trend compared with the previous advisory package. Note that much of the guidance suggests the weakening trend may be even faster than the official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 19.5N 117.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 20.1N 118.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 20.9N 119.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 21.8N 121.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 22.7N 123.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 23.4N 127.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 23.0N 131.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 23.0N 135.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Houston
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Hurricane Juliette Graphics
2019-09-04 16:36:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 04 Sep 2019 14:36:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 04 Sep 2019 14:36:56 GMT
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Hurricane Juliette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2019-09-04 16:34:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 041434 PWSEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 1500 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 120W 34 28 56(84) 1(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) 20N 120W 50 1 31(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) 20N 120W 64 X 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 25N 120W 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 12(22) 1(23) X(23) 25N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 1(12) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER HOUSTON
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Summary for Hurricane Juliette (EP1/EP112019)
2019-09-04 16:33:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JULIETTE WEAKENING OVER THE PACIFIC FAR FROM ANY LAND AREAS... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Sep 4 the center of Juliette was located near 19.5, -117.1 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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