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Hurricane Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 16
2019-09-05 04:33:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 050233 TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019 The satellite appearance of Juliette continues to gradually degrade. The eye is filling and there is evidence of dry slots within the circulation. The cloud pattern consists of a central dense overcast feature and curved outer bands. The initial intensity is lowered to 80 kt, to be in better agreement with the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. Juliette is still in relatively favorable environmental conditions, but that is expected to change soon. The hurricane will likely be crossing the 26 degree C isotherm in about 12 hours, and these cool waters, and a dry and stable air mass should cause steady weakening. The GFS and ECMWF suggest that Juliette should become a remnant low in about 4 days, when it will be over SSTs of 24 to 25 degree C. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows the HCCA and IVCN guidance. Juliette is moving west-northwestward at 6 kt. During the next couple of days, the cyclone is expected to continue west-northwestward, but at a faster pace, steered by a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. Beyond that time, the cyclone is forecast to become increasingly shallow, and it should be steered westward by the low-level trade wind flow. The models are in fair agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 19.8N 118.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 20.5N 119.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 21.7N 121.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 22.6N 123.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 23.3N 125.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 23.7N 128.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 23.2N 132.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/0000Z 22.7N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Juliette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2019-09-05 04:33:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 050233 PWSEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0300 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 96 2(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 20N 120W 50 38 7(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) 20N 120W 64 11 5(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 25N 120W 34 2 3( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 125W 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) 25N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 17(24) 5(29) 1(30) X(30) 25N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 6(17) X(17) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Hurricane Juliette (EP1/EP112019)
2019-09-05 04:32:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JULIETTE EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Sep 4 the center of Juliette was located near 19.8, -118.5 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane Juliette Public Advisory Number 16
2019-09-05 04:32:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 050232 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Juliette Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019 ...JULIETTE EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 118.5W ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Juliette was located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 118.5 West. Juliette is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). The hurricane is expected to move to the west-northwest at a slightly faster forward speed during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days, and Juliette is predicted to weaken to a tropical storm Thursday night or early Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Juliette Forecast Advisory Number 16
2019-09-05 04:32:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 050232 TCMEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0300 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 118.5W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 118.5W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 118.1W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.5N 119.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.7N 121.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.6N 123.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.3N 125.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.7N 128.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 23.2N 132.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 22.7N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 118.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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