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Hurricane Juliette Graphics
2019-09-04 22:39:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 04 Sep 2019 20:39:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 04 Sep 2019 20:39:41 GMT
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Hurricane Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 15
2019-09-04 22:38:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 042038 TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019 Juliette continues to exhibit a large, ragged eye in both visible and infrared satellite imagery, but there are some breaks in the convective banding. Warming of the cloud tops over the southeastern portion of the circulation has also been observed. Recent microwave data show that the low-level eye remains fairly well defined, and that the center was located a little south of the previous estimates. The initial intensity remains 85 kt, which is a blend of the various objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates. Although the vertical shear is forecast to remain quite low during the next several days, the hurricane will be moving over decreasing SSTs and into less favorable thermodynamic conditions. This should result in gradual weakening during the next several days, and Juliette is now forecast to become a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. The hurricane is moving west-northwestward or 295/6 kt. A mid-level ridge extending from the southwestern United States over the eastern Pacific should continue to steer Juliette west- northwestward at a slightly faster forward speed during the next 2 to 3 days. After that time, the cyclone is predicted to turn westward as it weakens and is steered by the easterly trade wind flow. The farther south initial position required a slight southward adjustment of the early portion of the track forecast, but the latter portion remains similar to the previous official forecast. The track guidance is tightly clustered and the NHC forecast is near middle of the envelope. The wind radii were adjusted slightly based on recent scatterometer data. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 19.4N 117.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 20.0N 118.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 21.1N 120.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 22.1N 122.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 23.0N 124.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 23.6N 128.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 23.2N 131.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 22.8N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Hurricane Juliette (EP1/EP112019)
2019-09-04 22:38:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JULIETTE HEADING TOWARD COOLER WATERS... As of 2:00 PM PDT Wed Sep 4 the center of Juliette was located near 19.4, -117.8 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 973 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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Hurricane Juliette Public Advisory Number 15
2019-09-04 22:38:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 042038 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Juliette Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019 ...JULIETTE HEADING TOWARD COOLER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 117.8W ABOUT 565 MI...905 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Juliette was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 117.8 West. Juliette is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). The hurricane is expected to move west-northwest at a slightly faster forward speed during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days and Juliette is predicted to weaken to a tropical storm Thursday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Juliette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2019-09-04 22:38:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 042038 PWSEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 2100 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 78 19(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) 20N 120W 50 7 40(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) 20N 120W 64 1 17(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 25N 120W 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 125W 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 11(25) 1(26) X(26) 25N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 1(14) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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