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Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast Advisory Number 22

2020-08-02 16:50:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 02 2020 535 WTNT24 KNHC 021450 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 1500 UTC SUN AUG 02 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF JUPITER INLET FLORIDA AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STORM SURGE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JUPITER INLET FLORIDA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAIAS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 79.6W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 30SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 79.6W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 79.5W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 28.0N 80.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 29.6N 80.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 32.2N 79.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 35.7N 77.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 40.1N 74.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 44.6N 70.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 110SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 51.7N 63.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.9N 79.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 02/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Summary for Tropical Storm Isaias (AT4/AL092020)

2020-08-02 13:58:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA... As of 8:00 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 the center of Isaias was located near 26.5, -79.5 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Tropical Storm Isaias Public Advisory Number 21A

2020-08-02 13:58:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 AM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 021157 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 21A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 800 AM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020 ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.5N 79.5W ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM ESE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM SSE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning for the Northwestern Bahamas has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida * Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Hallandale Beach Florida to South Santee River South Carolina * Lake Okeechobee A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina Interests elsewhere along the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars near near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 79.5 West. Isaias is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A general northwestward motion is expected today, followed by a north-northwestward motion tonight. A turn toward the north and north-northeast is anticipated on Monday and Tuesday with an increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will move near or over the east coast of Florida today through late tonight. On Monday and Tuesday, the center of Isaias will move from offshore of the coast of Georgia into the southern mid-Atlantic states. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated that the maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. During the past couple of hours, a wind gust to 55 mph (89 km/h) was reported at Freeport, Grand Bahama Island, and a Weatherflow observing site at Junno Beach Pier, Florida, measured a wind gust to 47 mph (76 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... North Miami Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL...1-3 ft Jupiter Inlet FL to Ponte Vedra Beach FL...2-4 ft Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Edisto Beach SC...1-3 ft Edisto Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the Northwestern Bahamas through this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward along the coast of Florida within the warning area through tonight. These conditions will spread northward along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina within the warning area on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in South and North Carolina beginning Monday night and Tuesday. RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: Northwest Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. Eastern Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Northeast Florida and coastal Georgia: 1 to 3 inches. Carolinas and the mid Atlantic, including the southern and central Appalachians: 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 7 inches. Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall from Isaias could result in potentially life-threatening flash flooding in the Bahamas and flash and urban flooding along the East Coast of the United States. Minor to isolated moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the Central and Northwest Bahamas and will spread northward along the east coast of Florida and the southeastern United States coast during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: The potential for a couple tornadoes will begin along coastal South Carolina during the late afternoon and evening on Monday, spreading across eastern North Carolina on Monday night. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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