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Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast Discussion Number 22
2020-08-02 16:59:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 021458 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020 Another recent burst of deep convection has recently developed northeast of the center, which has resulted in Isaias making a slight northward jog. An impressive mid-level circulation has developed within the strongest thunderstorm cluster, along with rare reflectivity values of 55-60 dBZ for a tropical cyclone. The Melbourne, Florida, Doppler weather radar has been indicating patches of velocity values of 65-66 kt at around 10,000 ft just north of the center, which equates to 58-59 kt surface winds. For now, the intensity will remain at 55 kt since previous convective bursts have not persisted for more than a couple of hours at best. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Isaias later today. Radar and aircraft fixes indicate that Isaias is now moving toward the north-northwest or 340/07 kt. A slow north-northwestward motion should continue for the next 24 hours or so as Isaias moves into a weakness that has developed in the Bermuda-Azores ridge over north Florida and off the Georgia coast seen in 02/1200Z upper-air data. A turn toward the north is forecast to occur by all of the global models by Monday morning, followed by a faster forward motion toward the northeast by Monday afternoon and evening when the cyclone will be influenced by southwesterly steering flow ahead of a strong eastward-moving mid- to upper-level trough. Continued northeastward acceleration across the mid-Atlantic and New England states is expected on days 3 and 4. The global models continue to show little cross-track difference, but still have significant along-track differences with the GFS being the fastest and the ECMWF being the slowest . Since the preponderance of the model guidance is slower than the GFS solution, the new official forecast track closely follows the consensus models TVCA and HCCA, and lies near the previous advisory track after 12 h. Isaias will remain over warm Gulfstream waters where water temperatures are near 30 deg C. Despite very unfavorable vertical shear conditions of 25-30 kt the past couple of days, the cyclone has managed to hold together, which is an indication that the system has a deep, well-formed vertical circulation. While some slight intensification is possible if the shear decreases, the official forecast calls for the intensity to remain steady until landfall occurs in the Carolinas in 36 hours or so. Some baroclinic interaction with the right-rear quadrant of an anticyclonically curved jet streak is expected to hold the intensity a little above what would normally be expected for a post-landfall tropical cyclone in 48-72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the HFIP corrected consensus model and the IVCN intensity consensus model. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions will spread northward along the east coast of Florida within the warning area through early Monday and will reach the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and southern North Carolina within the warning area Monday and early Tuesday. 2. Dangerous storm surge is possible from Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina where water rises of 2 to 4 feet above ground level are possible along the immediate coastline and adjacent waterways. A Storm Surge Warning may be needed for a portion of this area later today, and residents there should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 3. Heavy rainfall from Isaias will continue to result in potentially life-threatening flash flooding in the Northwest Bahamas through tonight. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant in the coastal Carolinas and Virginia, is expected through midweek along and near the path of Isaias along the U.S. East Coast. Widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. 4. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for portions of the North Carolina coast, where tropical storm conditions are possible on Tuesday. Additional watches and warnings will likely be issued later today as Isaias is expected to move northward near or over the mid-Atlantic and northeast coasts Tuesday and Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 26.9N 79.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 28.0N 80.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 29.6N 80.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 32.2N 79.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 35.7N 77.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 60H 05/0000Z 40.1N 74.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 05/1200Z 44.6N 70.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 06/1200Z 51.7N 63.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Isaias Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-08-02 16:52:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sun, 02 Aug 2020 14:52:07 GMT
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Tropical Storm Isaias Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2020-08-02 16:51:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 02 2020 564 FONT14 KNHC 021451 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 1500 UTC SUN AUG 02 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) X(15) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 6(18) X(18) BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 4(19) X(19) AUGUSTA ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 2(22) X(22) PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 1(24) X(24) CONCORD NH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 1(26) X(26) PORTSMOUTH NH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 1(31) X(31) WORCESTER MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) X(29) X(29) SPRINGFIELD MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SPRINGFIELD MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 1(29) X(29) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 1(25) X(25) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 1(25) X(25) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) 1(35) X(35) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) X(34) X(34) BRIDGEPORT CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BRIDGEPORT CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 1(34) X(34) NEW HAVEN CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEW HAVEN CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) X(32) X(32) HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HARTFORD CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 35(36) X(36) X(36) NEW LONDON CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NEW LONDON CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) ALBANY NY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) X(25) X(25) POUGHKEEPSIE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 37(38) 1(39) X(39) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) X(37) X(37) ISLIP NY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) ISLIP NY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 38(40) 1(41) X(41) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) NYC JFK AIRPRT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) X(33) X(33) NYC CNTRL PARK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NYC CNTRL PARK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) X(32) X(32) NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEWARK NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 28(31) X(31) X(31) TRENTON NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TRENTON NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) X(35) X(35) NWS EARLE NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NWS EARLE NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) X(22) X(22) ALLENTOWN PA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 28(31) X(31) X(31) PHILADELPHIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PHILADELPHIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 33(37) 1(38) X(38) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ATLANTIC CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 18(24) X(24) X(24) BALTIMORE MD 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 30(36) X(36) X(36) DOVER DE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) DOVER DE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 21(28) X(28) X(28) ANNAPOLIS MD 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 16(23) X(23) X(23) WASHINGTON DC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 40(48) X(48) X(48) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 40(51) X(51) X(51) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) X(15) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 24(37) X(37) X(37) PAX RIVER NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) PAX RIVER NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 36(51) X(51) X(51) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) X(15) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) X(15) X(15) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 23(23) 14(37) X(37) X(37) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) RICHMOND VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) DANVILLE VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 32(32) 21(53) X(53) X(53) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) X(15) X(15) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 32(32) 20(52) X(52) X(52) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) X(15) X(15) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 32(32) 22(54) X(54) X(54) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) X(16) X(16) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) 39(39) 15(54) X(54) X(54) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) X(16) X(16) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 3(33) X(33) X(33) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) RALEIGH NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 45(46) 6(52) X(52) X(52) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) ROCKY MT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) 7(44) X(44) X(44) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 40(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) FAYETTEVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 50(51) 4(55) X(55) X(55) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 52(55) 3(58) X(58) X(58) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 47(51) 3(54) X(54) X(54) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 52(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 52(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 15(15) 46(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 25(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 18(18) 43(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 23(23) 37(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) 20(20) 28(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 2( 2) 35(37) 10(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 4( 4) 25(29) 3(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) KINGS BAY GA 34 1 13(14) 7(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) MAYPORT NS FL 34 2 19(21) 7(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) JACKSONVILLE 34 1 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) DAYTONA BEACH 34 3 22(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) COCOA BEACH FL 34 59 8(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) COCOA BEACH FL 50 8 11(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) COCOA BEACH FL 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PATRICK AFB 34 57 8(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) PATRICK AFB 50 8 10(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) PATRICK AFB 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FT PIERCE FL 34 79 1(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) FT PIERCE FL 50 21 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) FT PIERCE FL 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) W PALM BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) W PALM BEACH 50 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) FT LAUDERDALE 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) VENICE FL 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm Isaias (AT4/AL092020)
2020-08-02 16:51:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND WATCH EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST... As of 11:00 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 the center of Isaias was located near 26.9, -79.6 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Isaias Public Advisory Number 22
2020-08-02 16:51:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 021450 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020 ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND WATCH EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.9N 79.6W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SE OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the North Carolina coast from north of Surf City to Duck, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. The Tropical Storm Warning south of Jupiter Inlet Florida and for Lake Okeechobee has been discontinued. The Storm Surge Watch for the Florida east coast has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Jupiter Inlet Florida to Surf City North Carolina A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City to Duck North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds Interests elsewhere along the mid-Atlantic coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located by NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 79.6 West. Isaias is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday morning. A turn toward the north and north-northeast is anticipated on Monday and Tuesday with an increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will move near the east coast of Florida today through late tonight. On Monday and Tuesday, the center of Isaias will move from offshore the coast of Georgia into the mid-Atlantic states. Doppler radar data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength will be possible during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. During the past couple of hours, the NOAA C-MAN station at Settlement Point, Grand Bahama Island, measured a wind gust of 64 mph (103 km/h). A wind gust to 62 mph (100 km/h) was reported at Freeport, Grand Bahama Island. Along the east coast of Florida, tropical-storm-force wind gusts have been observed from Juno Beach northward to Port St. Lucie. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Edisto Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...2-4 ft Jupiter Inlet FL to Edisto Beach SC...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the Northwestern Bahamas for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward along the coast of Florida within the warning area through tonight. These conditions will spread northward along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina within the warning area on Monday and Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in North Carolina on Tuesday. RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected along and near the track of Isaias: Northwest Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. Eastern Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Northeast Florida and coastal Georgia: 1 to 3 inches. Carolinas and the mid Atlantic: 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 7 inches. Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall from Isaias will continue to result in potentially life-threatening flash flooding in the Northwest Bahamas through tonight. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant in the coastal Carolinas and Virginia, is expected through midweek along and near the path of Isaias across the East Coast of the United States. Widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the Bahamas and the southeast coast of the United States and will spread northward along the U.S. east coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: The potential for a couple tornadoes will begin along coastal South Carolina during the late afternoon and evening on Monday, spreading across eastern North Carolina on Monday night. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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