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Tag: isaias

Hurricane Isaias Graphics

2020-08-01 10:58:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 01 Aug 2020 08:58:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 01 Aug 2020 09:24:58 GMT

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Hurricane Isaias Forecast Discussion Number 17

2020-08-01 10:55:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 010855 TCDAT4 Hurricane Isaias Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 500 AM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020 Isaias has a somewhat ragged appearance in satellite imagery this morning, likely due to the impact of westerly shear and dry air entrainment. The area of central convection has shrunk in size, although radar data from the Bahamas shows some banding near the center and occasional attempts to wrap up an eyewall. Also, a dry slot is now present in the eastern semicircle between the central convection and the outer banding. The last Hurricane Hunter mission indicated that the maximum winds had increased to near 75 kt, so that is maintained for this advisory. NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate the storm during the next several hours. The initial motion is now northwestward or 315/10 kt. The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged, as Isais should continue to move northwestward on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge today and begin to turn north-northwestward through a weakness in the ridge on Sunday. After that, the storm should recurve into the mid-latitude westerlies, with a turn toward the north-northeast and northeast with an increase in forward speed likely. The track guidance envelope has shifted a little to the east near the Florida coast and calls for a slower forward motion that the previous guidance. Thus, the new forecast track has been adjusted a little east of, and slower than, the previous track. The hurricane is currently undergoing about 25 kt of westerly vertical shear, and some mid-level dry air is present west of the center. This combination should prevent any more intensification, and, while Isaias is expected to remain a hurricane as it passes near the Florida coast, at least slight weakening should occur during this time. Current indications from the global models are that the storm will continue to experience strong shear as it recurves, and thus the intensity forecast follows the previous forecast in calling for weakening during this time. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in portions of the Bahamas through Saturday, and Hurricane Warnings are in effect. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the Florida east coast late Saturday and Saturday night, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 3. Dangerous storm surge is possible along the Florida east coast from Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach where water rises of 2 to 4 feet above ground level are possible along the immediate coastline and adjacent waterways. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 4. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas, across South to east-Central Florida, and across the Carolinas to the mid Atlantic. Minor river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and into Virginia early next week. 5. There is a risk of impacts from winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surge spreading along much of the the U.S. east coast through early next week, and interests there should monitor the progress of Isaias and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 23.9N 77.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 25.0N 78.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 26.3N 79.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 27.6N 79.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 29.1N 80.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 03/1800Z 31.2N 79.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 34.0N 77.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 41.5N 71.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 120H 06/0600Z 47.5N 61.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane Isaias Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

2020-08-01 10:52:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sat, 01 Aug 2020 08:52:48 GMT

Tags: map storm hurricane surge

Hurricane Isaias Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17

2020-08-01 10:51:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 010851 PWSAT4 HURRICANE ISAIAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 0900 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAIAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 2(17) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) X(18) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) X(18) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) X(15) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) X(15) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) X(16) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) X(19) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 17(29) X(29) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 12(25) X(25) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 9(24) X(24) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 14(34) X(34) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 8(33) X(33) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 6(24) X(24) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 4(36) X(36) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 3(30) X(30) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 2(29) X(29) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 2(21) X(21) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 1(28) X(28) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 1(23) X(23) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 11(25) X(25) X(25) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) 12(32) 1(33) X(33) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 17(28) 7(35) X(35) X(35) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) THE VILLAGES 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) ORLANDO FL 34 X 4( 4) 10(14) 10(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 2 12(14) 35(49) 12(61) 3(64) X(64) X(64) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X 1( 1) 12(13) 11(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PATRICK AFB 34 2 12(14) 35(49) 12(61) 3(64) X(64) X(64) PATRICK AFB 50 X 1( 1) 12(13) 10(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FT PIERCE FL 34 4 31(35) 31(66) 5(71) 1(72) X(72) X(72) FT PIERCE FL 50 X 5( 5) 23(28) 4(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) W PALM BEACH 34 8 51(59) 14(73) 1(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) W PALM BEACH 50 1 15(16) 14(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) W PALM BEACH 64 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FT LAUDERDALE 34 15 39(54) 6(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) FT LAUDERDALE 50 1 11(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MIAMI FL 34 4 16(20) 4(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) MIAMI FL 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 3 8(11) 3(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) MARATHON FL 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) KEY WEST FL 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NAPLES FL 34 3 4( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) FT MYERS FL 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) VENICE FL 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) TAMPA FL 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GRAND BAHAMA 34 53 36(89) 4(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) GRAND BAHAMA 50 3 55(58) 6(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X 12(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 92 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 24 2(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) ANDROS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ANDROS 50 61 X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) ANDROS 64 20 X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) GREAT EXUMA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GREAT EXUMA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN SALVADOR 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Summary for Hurricane Isaias (AT4/AL092020)

2020-08-01 10:51:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...CENTER OF ISAIAS APPROACHING ANDROS ISLAND... ...EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY... As of 5:00 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 the center of Isaias was located near 23.9, -77.1 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

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