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Hurricane Isaias Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

2020-07-31 04:35:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 31 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 310235 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 0300 UTC FRI JUL 31 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 12(29) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 7(21) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 5(21) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 8(29) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 5(27) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 4(22) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 24(28) 4(32) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 21(25) 2(27) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) 2(27) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 1(19) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 16(25) X(25) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) 1(21) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 6(20) X(20) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 6(23) X(23) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 3(21) X(21) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 2(16) X(16) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 22(41) 3(44) X(44) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 21(40) 3(43) X(43) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 24(30) 16(46) 2(48) X(48) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) X(13) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) W PALM BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 25(36) 10(46) 1(47) X(47) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 17(30) 7(37) 1(38) X(38) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 4(17) 1(18) X(18) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) MARATHON FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 5( 5) 30(35) 31(66) 6(72) 1(73) X(73) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 23(27) 7(34) X(34) X(34) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 2 32(34) 43(77) 4(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X 1( 1) 36(37) 5(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) 17(17) 3(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) ANDROS 34 2 40(42) 23(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) ANDROS 50 X 1( 1) 17(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) ANDROS 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GREAT EXUMA 34 29 62(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) GREAT EXUMA 50 X 38(38) 7(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) GREAT EXUMA 64 X 10(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) SAN SALVADOR 34 35 33(68) 1(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) SAN SALVADOR 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 86 X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) MAYAGUANA 50 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GRAND TURK 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Storm Isaias Graphics

2020-07-31 01:40:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 30 Jul 2020 23:40:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 30 Jul 2020 21:25:01 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm Isaias (AT4/AL092020)

2020-07-31 01:40:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...ISAIAS NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... As of 8:00 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 the center of Isaias was located near 19.9, -71.2 with movement NW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm Isaias Public Advisory Number 10A

2020-07-31 01:40:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 302340 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 800 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2020 ...ISAIAS NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 71.2W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WNW OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM ESE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Northwestern Bahamas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence, Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and Bimini A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines * North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the northern border with the Dominican Republic * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands * Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of Florida from Ocean Reef to Sebastian Inlet Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be required for a portion of the Florida peninsula tonight or Friday. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 71.2 West. Isaias is moving toward the northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will move near the Southeastern Bahamas by late tonight. Isaias is forecast to be near the Central Bahamas Friday night and move near or over the Northwestern Bahamas and near South Florida on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Isaias is forecast to become a hurricane on Friday or Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow in the central and northwest Bahamas. Storm surge will raise water level by as much as 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels in the southeastern Bahamas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread across portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos within the warning area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the central Bahamas Friday morning and spread into the northwestern Bahamas beginning late Friday. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the the northwestern Bahamas Friday night and Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida beginning Saturday. RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic and northern Haiti: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. Bahamas, Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches. Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches. These rainfall amounts will lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as river flooding. Urban and small stream flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands, eastern and southwestern Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola. Heavy rains associated with Isaias may begin to affect eastern Florida over the weekend. This rain could result in isolated flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas. SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will spread along the coast of Cuba and into the central and northwestern Bahamas over the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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