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Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-07-30 16:51:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Jul 30 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 301451 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 1100 AM AST Thu Jul 30 2020 The satellite presentation of Isaias has improved over the past 24 hours with a concentrated area of deep convection occurring near and to the northeast of the low-level center. Radar imagery from Puerto Rico has shown a mid-level circulation that moved over the Mona passage and is now along the northern coast of Hispaniola. Surface observations and data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft, however, continue to place the center near the southeastern coast of Hispaniola. It is possible that a new center will re-form along the northern coast of Hispaniola as the system interacts with high terrain of that island later today or tonight. The initial intensity remains 50 kt, and is based on the earlier Doppler radar data and observations along the southern coast of Puerto Rico. Isaias is moving northwestward or 310/16 kt. A high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic should steer Isaias on a west- northwestward to northwestward heading over the next couple of days, but the likelihood of a center re-formation during the next 12-18 hours means that some adjustments to the track and motion are possible. By late Friday, a mid-latitude trough moving into the east-central United States is expected to weaken the western portion of the ridge. This pattern should cause the cyclone to turn northwestward to north-northwestward on Saturday when it is near the northwestern Bahamas and South Florida. As the trough slides eastward over the United States, this should steer Isaias northward and northeastward early next week. Although the bulk of the track guidance agrees on this overall scenario, the confidence in the track forecast remains lower than usual due to the expected land interaction and possible center reformation in the short term. The new NHC track forecast is a blend of the HFIP corrected consensus and the TCVA multi-model consensus, and is similar to the previous advisory. The intensity forecast remains challenging. The structure of the storm is likely to be disrupted by its passage near or over Hispaniola today, and some weakening is likely. Once the system moves away from the Greater Antilles gradual strengthening is anticipated. The global models and the SHIPS guidance suggest that Isaias will encounter an area of moderate southwesterly shear over the weekend, and the NHC intensity forecast is again leveled off at that time. There are models that continue to suggest Isaias could become a hurricane when it is near the U.S., but given the continued uncertainty, the NHC intensity forecast remains near the intensity consensus. Key Messages: 1. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas. Heavy rains associated with Isaias may begin to affect South Florida Saturday morning, potentially resulting in isolated flash and urban flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through early afternoon and will spread across portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas later today through Friday, and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for these areas. Do not focus on the details of the track forecast, as rainfall and wind hazards will extend far from the center of the system. 3. There is a risk of impacts from winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surge along portions of the U.S. east coast beginning this weekend in Florida and spreading northward to the Carolinas and southern mid-Atlantic states early next week. Due to Isaias interacting with Hispaniola, the details of the track and intensity forecast remain uncertain and it is too soon to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Isaias and updates to the forecast. Tropical storm or hurricane watches could be issued for portions of South Florida later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 18.1N 68.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 31/0000Z 19.7N 71.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 31/1200Z 21.4N 74.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 01/0000Z 23.0N 76.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 24.6N 78.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 02/0000Z 26.2N 79.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 28.0N 79.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 31.5N 79.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 37.5N 73.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Isaias Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2020-07-30 16:50:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 30 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 301450 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 1500 UTC THU JUL 30 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 13(23) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 10(20) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 5(19) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 3(17) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 1(20) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 16(23) 1(24) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 9(19) X(19) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 6(18) 1(19) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 10(38) 1(39) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 9(37) 1(38) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 30(36) 7(43) X(43) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 29(42) 4(46) X(46) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 26(42) 3(45) X(45) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 18(26) 2(28) 1(29) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 15(22) 2(24) X(24) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) 1(15) X(15) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 2(14) X(14) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) 1(12) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 28(52) 3(55) X(55) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) X(14) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 3( 3) 19(22) 34(56) 8(64) X(64) X(64) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ANDROS 34 X 5( 5) 34(39) 26(65) 3(68) X(68) X(68) ANDROS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) ANDROS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GREAT EXUMA 34 1 25(26) 42(68) 3(71) 1(72) X(72) X(72) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN SALVADOR 34 1 23(24) 15(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) MAYAGUANA 34 16 46(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) GRAND TURK 34 51 9(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) CAMAGUEY 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAPE BEATA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PUERTO PLATA 50 8 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SANTO DOMINGO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PONCE PR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) AGUADILLA PR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN JUAN PR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm Isaias (AT4/AL092020)
2020-07-30 16:50:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ISAIAS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PUERTO RICO... ....HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Jul 30 the center of Isaias was located near 18.1, -68.9 with movement NW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Isaias Public Advisory Number 9
2020-07-30 16:50:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Jul 30 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 301450 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 1100 AM AST Thu Jul 30 2020 ...ISAIAS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PUERTO RICO... ....HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 68.9W ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SW OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Antigua has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the British Virgin Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines * North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the northern border with the Dominican Republic * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands * Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence, Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and Bimini Interests in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. Watches may be required for a portion of the Florida peninsula later today. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 68.9 West. Isaias is moving toward the northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a west- northwestward to northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will move over Hispaniola today and move near the Southeastern Bahamas by tonight or early Friday. Isaias is forecast to be near the Central Bahamas Friday night and approach the Northwest Bahamas or southern Florida Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight weakening is possible as Isaias moves over Hispaniola today. Re-strengthening is forecast on Friday and Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km) primarily to the north of the center. Tropical-storm-force winds are occuring along the southern coast of Puerto Rico. A Weatherflow station at Las Mareas, Puerto Rico, reported sustained winds of 45 mph (72 km/h) with a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h). A wind gust of 60 mph (96 km/h) was recently reported at Punta Cana on the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through early afternoon. These conditions are spreading over portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti within the warning area, and are expected to spread over the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Central Bahamas beginning Friday morning and are possible in the northwestern Bahamas beginning late Friday. RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic and northern Haiti: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Bahamas, Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches. Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches. These rainfall amounts will lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as river flooding. Urban and small stream flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands, eastern and southwestern Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola. Heavy rains associated with Isaias may begin to affect South Florida Saturday morning. This rain could result in isolated flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas. SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-07-30 16:50:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 30 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 301450 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 1500 UTC THU JUL 30 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ENTIRE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN COASTLINES * NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS * CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND...NEW PROVIDENCE...ELEUTHERA...ABACOS ISLANDS...BERRY ISLANDS...GRAND BAHAMAS ISLAND...AND BIMINI INTERESTS IN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 68.9W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......270NE 90SE 0SW 210NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 0SE 0SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 68.9W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 68.5W FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 19.7N 71.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...210NE 90SE 0SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 21.4N 74.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 90SE 0SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 23.0N 76.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 24.6N 78.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 26.2N 79.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 28.0N 79.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 31.5N 79.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 37.5N 73.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 68.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 30/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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