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Tropical Storm Isaias Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
2020-08-02 05:54:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Sun, 02 Aug 2020 03:54:30 GMT
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Tropical Storm Isaias Graphics
2020-08-02 05:17:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 02 Aug 2020 03:17:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 02 Aug 2020 03:25:04 GMT
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Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast Discussion Number 20
2020-08-02 04:56:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 020256 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020 Deep convection has increased this evening in a cluster to the east and northeast of the aircraft-observed center position. Radar data suggests a mid-level center or vorticity maximum in that area, which is between Grand Bahama and Andros Island. Observations from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that Isaias has not restrengthened thus far, but there is still a small window of opportunity for it to regain hurricane intensity Sunday while passing over the Gulf Stream waters. Synoptic surveillance data from the NOAA Gulfstream-IV aircraft indicate that the upper-level west-southwesterly flow over Isais will begin to increase by late Sunday. The resulting increase in shear and interaction with land should cause weakening beyond 24 hours, and the official intensity forecast is near or above the intensity model consensus. Assuming that the aforementioned mid-level feature is not the dominant center of circulation, the aircraft fixes give a motion estimate of about 310/8 kt. Isais has been moving northwestward along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high pressure area. An approaching trough near the Ohio Valley is expected to cause the tropical cyclone to turn northward within 48 hours. After that, Isaias should accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward ahead of the trough, and move near or over the east coast of the United States. The official track forecast remains close to both the simple and corrected dynamic model consensus tracks, TVCN and HCCA respectively. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge will continue in portions of the northwest Bahamas through Sunday morning. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the Florida east coast on Sunday with tropical storm conditions expected to begin late tonight. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 3. Dangerous storm surge is possible along the Florida east coast from Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach where water rises of 2 to 4 feet above ground level are possible along the immediate coastline and adjacent waterways. Residents there should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 4. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening flash flooding in the Bahamas, and flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas, along the east coast of the United States. Minor river flooding and isolated moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and mid Atlantic early next week. 5. Tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for portions of the United States East Coast from northeast Florida to South Carolina. Additional watches and warnings will likely be issued on Sunday as Isaias is expected to move northward near or over the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 25.5N 79.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 26.6N 79.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 28.0N 80.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...ON COAST 36H 03/1200Z 29.7N 80.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 32.0N 80.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 04/1200Z 35.3N 78.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 72H 05/0000Z 39.7N 74.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 06/0000Z 47.0N 66.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 07/0000Z 51.5N 57.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Isaias Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-08-02 04:55:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sun, 02 Aug 2020 02:55:46 GMT
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Tropical Storm Isaias Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2020-08-02 04:55:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 02 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 020255 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 0300 UTC SUN AUG 02 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) X(13) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) X(14) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) X(14) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 1(16) X(16) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 1(22) X(22) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 1(25) X(25) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) X(20) X(20) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 1(28) X(28) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) X(24) X(24) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 1(31) X(31) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 1(31) X(31) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) X(31) X(31) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) X(32) X(32) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) X(26) X(26) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) X(35) X(35) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) X(26) X(26) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) X(33) X(33) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) X(37) X(37) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 39(40) X(40) X(40) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 35(37) X(37) X(37) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 39(43) X(43) X(43) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 37(40) X(40) X(40) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 36(45) X(45) X(45) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 24(28) X(28) X(28) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 36(47) 1(48) X(48) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 34(48) X(48) X(48) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 28(39) X(39) X(39) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 15(42) X(42) X(42) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 21(26) 6(32) X(32) X(32) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) KINGS BAY GA 34 1 2( 3) 20(23) 12(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WAYCROSS GA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 34 1 3( 4) 29(33) 10(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) JACKSONVILLE 34 X 2( 2) 12(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) GAINESVILLE FL 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) DAYTONA BEACH 34 1 19(20) 28(48) 1(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) THE VILLAGES 34 1 3( 4) 6(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) ORLANDO FL 34 2 30(32) 8(40) X(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) COCOA BEACH FL 34 15 62(77) 5(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X 23(23) 8(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PATRICK AFB 34 15 62(77) 4(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) PATRICK AFB 50 X 22(22) 7(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) PATRICK AFB 64 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 82 13(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) FT PIERCE FL 50 3 39(42) 2(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) FT PIERCE FL 64 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) W PALM BEACH 34 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) W PALM BEACH 50 44 9(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) W PALM BEACH 64 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FT LAUDERDALE 34 88 X(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) FT LAUDERDALE 50 10 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) FT LAUDERDALE 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MIAMI FL 34 11 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NAPLES FL 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND BAHAMA 50 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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