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Summary for Tropical Storm Isaias (AT4/AL092020)
2020-07-30 13:53:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ISAIAS CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND HIGH WINDS OVER PUERTO RICO... As of 8:00 AM AST Thu Jul 30 the center of Isaias was located near 17.6, -68.5 with movement NW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Isaias Public Advisory Number 8A
2020-07-30 13:53:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Thu Jul 30 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 301153 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 800 AM AST Thu Jul 30 2020 ...ISAIAS CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND HIGH WINDS OVER PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 68.5W ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM W OF PONCE PUERTO RICO ABOUT 105 MI...175 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines * North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the northern border with the Dominican Republic * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands * Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence, Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and Bimini Interests in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 68.5 West. Isaias is moving toward the northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a west-northwestward to northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will move over Hispaniola later today and near the Southeastern Bahamas by tonight or early Friday. Isaias is forecast to be near the Central Bahamas Friday night and approach the Northwest Bahamas or southern Florida Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is anticipated until landfall in Dominican Republic later today, with re-strengthening forecast on Friday and Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km) from the center. Tropical-storm-force winds are occuring along the southern coast of Puerto Rico. A Weatherflow station in Yabucoa Tanque de Agua reported sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) with a gust to 56 mph (91 km/h). A Weatherflow station at Las Mareas reported sustained winds of 43 mph (69 km/h) with a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through this morning or early afternoon. These conditions are forecast to reach portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti within the warning area later this morning, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Central Bahamas beginning Friday morning and are possible in the northwestern Bahamas beginning late Friday. RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Turks and Caicos: 3 to 6 inches. Puerto Rico and northern Haiti: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Dominican Republic: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches. Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. These rainfall amounts will lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding beginning today. Urban and small stream flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands, eastern Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola. SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Isaias Graphics
2020-07-30 13:53:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 30 Jul 2020 11:53:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 30 Jul 2020 09:25:01 GMT
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Tropical Storm Isaias Graphics
2020-07-30 10:53:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 30 Jul 2020 08:53:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 30 Jul 2020 08:53:46 GMT
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Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-07-30 10:52:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Jul 30 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 300852 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 500 AM AST Thu Jul 30 2020 Isaias is sending some mixed signals tonight. The 1-min rapid scan data from GOES-16 indicates that the low-level center is likely displaced west of a very intense burst of deep convection on the northeastern side of the circulation. However, the satellite data also shows increased banding features overnight and a more organized central cloud pattern, with recent hints that perhaps a low-level center is trying to re-form closer to the convection. Radar observations from San Juan show 60-65 kt Doppler wind velocities during the past few hours near 5000 ft, so the initial wind speed is raised to 50 kt. Model forecasts are showing a complex evolution of the tropical cyclone during the next day or two. There is good agreement that Isaias will move across Hispaniola later today, and its low-level center will likely become disorganized over the high terrain. However, the strong burst of convection currently near Puerto Rico is associated with a mid-level circulation, which should pass along the north coast of Hispaniola later today. Most of the model guidance suggest that this feature will cause the re-development of a surface center over the northern part of the broader system while the mid-level circulation moves close to the southeastern Bahamas. Afterward, the cyclone would then move northwestward until the weekend, and gradually turn northward and northeastward close to the U.S. East Coast into early next week ahead of a mid-latitude trough. The official track forecast is a little to the east of the previous one and close to the NOAA corrected dynamical model consensus. It should be noted that further adjustments to the forecast tracks are indeed possible, especially after Isaias moves north of Hispaniola. The intensity forecast is quite tricky. In the short term, Isaias is expected to move across Hispaniola, as the storm's interaction with the mountainous island should cause some weakening and disruption to the circulation. However, as mentioned before, the models suggest that a new center could form, and the environmental conditions would support gradual intensification. The intensity models have been trending higher, and the official forecast is nudged upward accordingly, now showing a peak intensity of 60 kt when the storm is near the coast of Florida and the Southeast U.S. Coast. It should be noted that there are models that show hurricane strength near the U.S. but, given the large amount of uncertainty, it is preferred to stay on the conservative side for now. We should have a better idea of how strong Isaias will become near the U.S. after reconnaissance aircraft sample the storm and after it passes Hispaniola later today. Key Messages: 1. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and over the Bahamas. 2. Tropical storm conditions are likely across portions of the the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through this morning and will spread westward to portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas later today and Friday. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for these areas. Do not focus on the details of the track forecast, as rainfall and wind hazards will extend far from the center of the system. 3. While this system could bring some rainfall and wind impacts to portions of Cuba and Florida later this week and this weekend, it is too soon to determine the location or magnitude of those impacts. Interests there should monitor the progress of this system and updates to the forecast over the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 17.2N 67.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 18.8N 70.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 31/0600Z 20.6N 72.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 31/1800Z 22.3N 75.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 24.0N 77.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 01/1800Z 25.5N 79.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 27.3N 80.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 31.0N 80.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 04/0600Z 37.0N 74.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake/Cangialosi
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