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Tropical Storm Isaias Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21

2020-08-02 10:56:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 02 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 020856 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 0900 UTC SUN AUG 02 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) X(16) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) X(17) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19) X(19) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 6(18) X(18) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 5(23) X(23) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 3(24) X(24) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 5(21) X(21) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 3(18) X(18) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 2(16) X(16) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 2(24) X(24) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 2(27) X(27) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 2(27) X(27) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 3(26) X(26) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 2(24) X(24) NEW LONDON CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NEW LONDON CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) X(14) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 1(20) X(20) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 1(27) X(27) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 2(29) X(29) ISLIP NY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLIP NY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 1(32) X(32) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 1(27) X(27) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) X(25) X(25) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) X(28) X(28) TRENTON NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) TRENTON NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 1(29) X(29) NWS EARLE NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) X(20) X(20) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) X(30) X(30) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 1(34) X(34) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) X(25) X(25) BALTIMORE MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BALTIMORE MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) X(34) X(34) DOVER DE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOVER DE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 1(30) X(30) ANNAPOLIS MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) X(25) X(25) WASHINGTON DC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 43(44) 1(45) X(45) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 45(46) X(46) X(46) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 36(38) X(38) X(38) PAX RIVER NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PAX RIVER NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 46(48) 1(49) X(49) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) X(17) X(17) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 35(38) X(38) X(38) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) RICHMOND VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) X(18) X(18) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 44(48) X(48) X(48) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 44(48) X(48) X(48) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 44(48) X(48) X(48) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 42(48) X(48) X(48) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) X(15) X(15) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 22(36) X(36) X(36) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) RALEIGH NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 34(49) X(49) X(49) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) X(12) ROCKY MT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 28(37) X(37) X(37) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 28(28) 18(46) X(46) X(46) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) FAYETTEVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) 33(52) X(52) X(52) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 26(26) 29(55) X(55) X(55) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) X(14) X(14) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 23(23) 27(50) X(50) X(50) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 38(39) 19(58) X(58) X(58) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) X(16) X(16) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 36(36) 20(56) X(56) X(56) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 7(17) X(17) X(17) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 47(49) 11(60) X(60) X(60) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 5(21) X(21) X(21) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 8(39) X(39) X(39) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 50(52) 9(61) X(61) X(61) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) 4(23) X(23) X(23) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 52(55) 7(62) X(62) X(62) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) 4(23) X(23) X(23) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 46(48) 5(53) X(53) X(53) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 43(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 2( 2) 12(14) 25(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 1 5( 6) 19(25) 3(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) WAYCROSS GA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 1 9(10) 21(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) JACKSONVILLE 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 1 23(24) 7(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) THE VILLAGES 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ORLANDO FL 34 3 10(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) COCOA BEACH FL 34 39 33(72) 1(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) COCOA BEACH FL 50 2 19(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 38 33(71) 1(72) 1(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) PATRICK AFB 50 2 18(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) PATRICK AFB 64 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 82 5(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) FT PIERCE FL 50 16 11(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) FT PIERCE FL 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) W PALM BEACH 34 74 X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) W PALM BEACH 50 18 X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) FT LAUDERDALE 34 8 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) NAPLES FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND BAHAMA 50 80 X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm Isaias Public Advisory Number 21

2020-08-02 10:56:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 020856 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 500 AM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020 ...ISAIAS CONTINUES TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS NEARING THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.3N 79.5W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM ENE OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning along the east coast of Florida has been replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning. The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward along the southeast United States coast to South Santee River South Carolina. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Edisto Beach South Carolina northward to Cape Fear North Carolina. The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended northward to Surf City, North Carolina. The Tropical Storm Warning along the coast of Florida has been discontinued south of Hallandale Beach. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bimini, the Berry Islands, and Grand Bahama Island A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida * Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Hallandale Beach Florida to South Santee River South Carolina * Lake Okeechobee A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina Interests elsewhere along the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 79.5 West. Isaias is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A general northwestward motion is expected today, followed by a north-northwestward motion by tonight. A turn toward the north and north-northeast is anticipated on Monday and Tuesday with an increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will move near or over the east coast of Florida today through late tonight. On Monday and Tuesday, the center of Isaias will move from offshore of the coast of Georgia into the southern mid-Atlantic states. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated that the maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... North Miami Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL...1-3 ft Jupiter Inlet FL to Ponte Vedra Beach FL...2-4 ft Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Edisto Beach SC...1-3 ft Edisto Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the Northwestern Bahamas through this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward along the coast of Florida within the warning area through tonight. These conditions will spread northward along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina within the warning area on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in South and North Carolina beginning Monday night and Tuesday. RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: Northwest Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. Eastern Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Northeast Florida and coastal Georgia: 1 to 3 inches. Carolinas and the mid Atlantic, including the southern and central Appalachians: 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 7 inches. Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall from Isaias could result in potentially life-threatening flash flooding in the Bahamas and flash and urban flooding along the East Coast of the United States. Minor to isolated moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the Central and Northwest Bahamas and will spread northward along the east coast of Florida and the southeastern United States coast during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown/Berg

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Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast Advisory Number 21

2020-08-02 10:56:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 02 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 020855 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 0900 UTC SUN AUG 02 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WARNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA. A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO SURF CITY... NORTH CAROLINA. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF HALLANDALE BEACH. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BIMINI...THE BERRY ISLANDS...AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JUPITER INLET TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH FLORIDA * EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HALLANDALE BEACH FLORIDA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA * LAKE OKEECHOBEE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAIAS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 79.5W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 30SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 79.5W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 79.2W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 27.4N 80.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 28.8N 80.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 30.7N 80.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 33.7N 79.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 37.8N 76.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 42.9N 72.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 110SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 50.0N 65.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.3N 79.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 02/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Summary for Tropical Storm Isaias (AT4/AL092020)

2020-08-02 07:51:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT BEGINNING TO INVESTIGATE ISAIAS... As of 2:00 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 the center of Isaias was located near 25.8, -79.1 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

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Tropical Storm Isaias Public Advisory Number 20A

2020-08-02 07:51:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 AM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020 191 WTNT34 KNHC 020551 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 20A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 200 AM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT BEGINNING TO INVESTIGATE ISAIAS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.8N 79.1W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM ESE OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM SE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Boca Raton to the Volusia/Flagler County Line Florida * Bimini, the Berry Islands, and Grand Bahama Island A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Ocean Reef to south of Boca Raton Florida * Lake Okeechobee * Volusia/Flagler County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to South Santee River South Carolina Interests elsewhere along the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 79.1 West. Isaias is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A general northwestward motion is expected today, followed by a north-northwestward motion by tonight. A turn toward the north and north-northeast is anticipated on Monday and Tuesday with an increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will approach the southeast coast of Florida this morning and move near or along the east coast of Florida later today and tonight. On Monday and Tuesday, the center of Isaias will move from offshore of the coast of Georgia into the southern mid-Atlantic states. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some restrengthening is possible today. Slow weakening is expected to begin tonight and continue through Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. A Coastal Marine observing site at Settlement Point on the western end of Grand Bahama Island recently reported a sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) with a gust to 48 mph (78 km/h). The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter observations is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach FL...2-4 ft North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the Northwestern Bahamas. WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the Northwestern Bahamas through this morning. Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area in Florida later this morning and will spread northward through tonight. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength early this morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in South Florida this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in northeast Florida by tonight, and are possible in the watch area from northeast Florida to South Carolina on Monday. RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches. Eastern Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Northeast Florida and coastal Georgia: 1 to 3 inches. Carolinas and the mid Atlantic, including the southern and central Appalachians: 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 7 inches. Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall from Isaias could result in potentially life-threatening flash flooding in the Bahamas and flash and urban flooding along the East Coast of the United States. Minor river flooding and isolated moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and mid Atlantic. SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the Central and Northwest Bahamas and will spread northward along the east coast of Florida and the southeastern United States coast during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown/Berg

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