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Tropical Depression RICK Forecast Discussion Number 17
2015-11-22 15:45:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM PST SUN NOV 22 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 221445 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 700 AM PST SUN NOV 22 2015 Dry air and southwesterly shear has taken its toll on the tropical cyclone since yesterday. Deep convection associated with Rick has become well separated from the low-level center and diminished overnight, with the tropical cyclone becoming a swirl of mostly low- to mid-level clouds. The initial wind speed remains 30 kt, which is a blend of the Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB. Increasing shear, dry air, and decreasing sea surface temperatures are expected to cause the cyclone to spin down during the next couple of days, and Rick is forecast to become a remnant low later today. The remnant circulation should dissipate in 3 to 4 days. Rick is moving northwestward or 305/8 kt. The cyclone is predicted to turn north-northwestward and northward during the next 24 to 36 hours as it is steered between a shortwave trough to its west and a low- to mid-level ridge over western Mexico. After that time, the low-level steering currents are expected to weaken, and the remnant low should become nearly stationary. The updated NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory and is near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 17.8N 118.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 18.6N 119.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 23/1200Z 19.7N 120.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/0000Z 20.5N 120.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1200Z 21.0N 120.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1200Z 20.7N 119.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression RICK Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2015-11-22 15:44:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN NOV 22 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 221444 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 1500 UTC SUN NOV 22 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Depression RICK (EP1/EP212015)
2015-11-22 15:44:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...RICK EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 7:00 AM PST Sun Nov 22 the center of RICK was located near 17.8, -118.5 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression RICK Public Advisory Number 17
2015-11-22 15:44:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM PST SUN NOV 22 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 221444 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 700 AM PST SUN NOV 22 2015 ...RICK EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 118.5W ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 AM PST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rick was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 118.5 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Rick is expected to become a remnant low later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 100 PM PST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression RICK Forecast Advisory Number 17
2015-11-22 15:44:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN NOV 22 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 221444 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 1500 UTC SUN NOV 22 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 118.5W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 118.5W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 118.2W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 18.6N 119.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 19.7N 120.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.5N 120.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 21.0N 120.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 20.7N 119.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 118.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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