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Tropical Storm RICK Forecast Advisory Number 14
2015-11-21 22:09:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT NOV 21 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 212108 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 2100 UTC SAT NOV 21 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 115.9W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 115.9W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 115.4W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.3N 117.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.5N 118.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 19.7N 119.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.7N 120.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 21.5N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 115.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm RICK Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2015-11-21 22:09:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT NOV 21 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 212108 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM RICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 2100 UTC SAT NOV 21 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tropical Storm RICK Graphics
2015-11-21 16:08:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Nov 2015 14:32:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Nov 2015 15:04:47 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm RICK (EP1/EP212015)
2015-11-21 15:33:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...RICK FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT... As of 7:00 AM PST Sat Nov 21 the center of RICK was located near 17.3, -115.1 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm RICK Public Advisory Number 13
2015-11-21 15:33:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM PST SAT NOV 21 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 211432 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RICK ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 700 AM PST SAT NOV 21 2015 ...RICK FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT... SUMMARY OF 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 115.1W ABOUT 515 MI...825 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 AM PST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rick was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 115.1 West. Rick is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Sunday with a slight decrease in forward speed. A turn toward the northwest and a further decrease in forward speed are forecast Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Rick is expected to become a tropical depression by tonight and weaken to a post-tropical remnant low by Sunday night. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 100 PM PST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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