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Tropical Storm RICK Graphics
2015-11-22 04:04:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Nov 2015 02:40:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Nov 2015 03:04:47 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm RICK (EP1/EP212015)
2015-11-22 03:39:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...RICK CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH BUT EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING ON SUNDAY... As of 7:00 PM PST Sat Nov 21 the center of RICK was located near 17.0, -117.0 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm RICK Public Advisory Number 15
2015-11-22 03:39:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 PM PST SAT NOV 21 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 220238 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RICK ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 700 PM PST SAT NOV 21 2015 ...RICK CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH BUT EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING ON SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 700 PM PST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 117.0W ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 PM PST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rick was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 117.0 West. Rick is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn to the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Rick is expected to become a tropical depression on Sunday and a post-tropical remnant low Sunday night or early Monday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 100 AM PST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm RICK Forecast Discussion Number 15
2015-11-22 03:39:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 PM PST SAT NOV 21 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 220238 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 700 PM PST SAT NOV 21 2015 Rick has not changed much since yesterday. Visible satellite images from earlier this evening and microwave data indicate that the low-level center of the storm is located to the northwest of a pulsing area of deep convection. The initial intensity estimate is again held at 35 kt, in agreement with a blend of the Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. Dry and stable air has been entraining into the northwestern side of the circulation for some time. The continued effects of dry air, increasing shear, and cooler waters should result in Rick weakening during the next day or so. The cyclone is expected to become a remnant low by Sunday night or early Monday when it moves over sea surface temperatures lower than 26 degrees C and is embedded in hostile atmospheric conditions. The remnant low is expected to gradually weaken and dissipate in 3 to 4 days. Rick continues to move westward at about 10 kt, and the system is a little left of the previous track prediction. The guidance continues to show Rick turning northwestward and slowing down during the next couple of days as the mid-level ridge to the north of the storm breaks down. Little motion is expected beyond a couple of days when the shallow cyclone becomes embedded in weak steering currents. The NHC official track forecast is shifted to the west of the previous one, and is in best agreement with a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 17.0N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 17.8N 118.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 19.0N 119.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 20.0N 120.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/0000Z 20.7N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0000Z 21.3N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm RICK Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2015-11-22 03:39:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN NOV 22 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 220238 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM RICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 0300 UTC SUN NOV 22 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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