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Tropical Storm RICK Forecast Advisory Number 15
2015-11-22 03:38:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN NOV 22 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 220238 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 0300 UTC SUN NOV 22 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 117.0W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 117.0W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 116.5W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.8N 118.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.0N 119.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 20.0N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.7N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 21.3N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 117.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm RICK Graphics
2015-11-21 22:10:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Nov 2015 21:10:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Nov 2015 21:04:47 GMT
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Tropical Storm RICK Forecast Discussion Number 14
2015-11-21 22:09:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM PST SAT NOV 21 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 212109 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 100 PM PST SAT NOV 21 2015 Microwave data and visible imagery indicate that the center of Rick is located farther south than estimated on the previous advisory. This places the center a little closer to the deep convection, but there remains little in the way of convective banding. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. Satellite imagery shows dry, stable air working its way into the northwestern quadrant of the cyclone. This dry air plus shear increasing above 20 kt tonight should result in weakening, and Rick is expected to become a remnant low by 36 hours. The remnant low should gradually spin down and dissipate in about 4 days. Satellite fixes indicate that Rick has taken a westward jog during the past 6 to 12 hours, and the initial motion estimate is 275/10. Despite this, the overall synoptic reasoning has not changed, and Rick will gradually recurve in the next 2-3 days as it moves around the western edge of the subtropical ridge. As Rick becomes a shallow remnant low, it should move slowly northward until dissipation in the weak low-level flow. The new NHC track forecast is to the left of the previous one due to the initial position and motion, and is close to a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 16.8N 115.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 17.3N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 18.5N 118.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 19.7N 119.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/1800Z 20.7N 120.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/1800Z 21.5N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Summary for Tropical Storm RICK (EP1/EP212015)
2015-11-21 22:09:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...RICK JOGS WESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT AND WEAKEN... As of 1:00 PM PST Sat Nov 21 the center of RICK was located near 16.8, -115.9 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm RICK Public Advisory Number 14
2015-11-21 22:09:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM PST SAT NOV 21 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 212108 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RICK ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 100 PM PST SAT NOV 21 2015 ...RICK JOGS WESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT AND WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 115.9W ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 PM PST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rick was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 115.9 West. Rick is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest and a decrease in forward speed on Sunday. Rick is expected to turn toward the north-northwest at an even slower forward speed on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Rick is forecast to become a tropical depression on Sunday and a post-tropical remnant low Sunday night. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 700 PM PST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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