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Tropical Depression RICK Forecast Discussion Number 16
2015-11-22 09:34:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 AM PST SUN NOV 22 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 220834 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 100 AM PST SUN NOV 22 2015 Rick is barely hanging on as a tropical cyclone. Convective cloud tops have warmed considerably since the previous advisory, and the overall convective pattern has become disheveled looking with the low-level circulation center now fully exposed more than 60 nmi to the northwest of the closest convective cells. The initial intensity has been decreased to 30 kt based on 25-kt to 30-kt satellite intensity estimates, making Rick a tropical depression. Rick has made the expected turn toward the west-northwest and is now moving 290/10 kt. There is essentially no significant change to the previous forecast track reasoning. The latest NHC model guidance continues to show Rick turning northwestward and slowing down later today, followed by a northward drift on Monday and Tuesday as the cyclone continues to weaken, becoming more vertically shallow and trapped in weak steering currents within a break in a low- to mid-level ridge. The official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track and lies close to the consensus of the GFS and ECMWF model tracks. Microwave satellite images indicate that dry and stable air has now wrapped all the way around the cyclone and has penetrated into the inner-core region, effectively cutting off convective development there. The combination of even drier air and cooler sea-surface temperatures, along with southwesterly vertical wind shear increasing to more than 30 kt by late tonight or Monday morning, is expected to produce further weakening for the rest of the forecast period. Rick should become a remnant low by tonight or early Monday, and dissipate by 96 h, if not sooner. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows the the IVCN consensus intensity model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 17.3N 117.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 18.0N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 19.2N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 23/1800Z 20.3N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/0600Z 20.9N 120.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0600Z 21.3N 120.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Depression RICK (EP1/EP212015)
2015-11-22 09:32:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...RICK WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY... As of 1:00 AM PST Sun Nov 22 the center of RICK was located near 17.3, -117.9 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression RICK Public Advisory Number 16
2015-11-22 09:32:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 AM PST SUN NOV 22 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 220832 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 100 AM PST SUN NOV 22 2015 ...RICK WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 100 AM PST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 117.9W ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 AM PST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rick was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 117.9 West. Rick is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected later today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Rick is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low tonight or early Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 700 AM PST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression RICK Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2015-11-22 09:32:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN NOV 22 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 220832 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 0900 UTC SUN NOV 22 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression RICK Forecast Advisory Number 16
2015-11-22 09:31:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN NOV 22 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 220831 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 0900 UTC SUN NOV 22 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 117.9W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 117.9W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 117.5W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.0N 119.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 19.2N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.3N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.9N 120.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 21.3N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 117.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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