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Tropical Storm RICK Graphics
2015-11-20 15:51:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Nov 2015 14:34:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Nov 2015 14:50:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm RICK Forecast Discussion Number 9
2015-11-20 15:37:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM MST FRI NOV 20 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 201437 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 800 AM MST FRI NOV 20 2015 Rick's convective pattern remains rather unimpressive, with some ragged banding in the western semicircle and a small area of more concentrated convection south of the estimated center position. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data and the latest Dvorak Data-T numbers from TAFB and SAB. While Rick is still situated over warm waters in a low shear environment, mid- level dry air and relatively meager instability appear to be limiting intensification. All of the intensity guidance suggests only modest strengthening in the next 24 to 36 hours before the shear increases by 48 hours. The increasing shear and a track over cooler waters should result in Rick weakening to a remnant low by day 3. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the latest intensity consensus. The initial motion estimate is 290/10. Rick is forecast to continue moving west-northwestward for the next 36 hours while being steered by a mid-level ridge centered over southwestern Mexico. After that time, the ridge will weaken as a deep-layer trough amplifies to the northwest of the tropical cyclone, and Rick should recurve late in the period, albeit as a shallow cyclone. The new NHC track forecast is close to the previous one through 48 hours and then is a little to the left and slower, trending toward the weaker ECMWF solution. The official forecast is much slower than the latest GFS solution at days 3 through 5, which appears too strong with Rick at those times. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 16.1N 110.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 16.7N 111.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 17.3N 113.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 17.8N 114.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 18.6N 115.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 20.5N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/1200Z 21.5N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/1200Z 22.5N 117.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Summary for Tropical Storm RICK (EP1/EP212015)
2015-11-20 15:35:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...RICK MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 8:00 AM MST Fri Nov 20 the center of RICK was located near 16.1, -110.3 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm RICK Public Advisory Number 9
2015-11-20 15:35:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM MST FRI NOV 20 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 201435 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RICK ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 800 AM MST FRI NOV 20 2015 ...RICK MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 110.3W ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rick was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 110.3 West. Rick is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) to the west of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm RICK Forecast Advisory Number 9
2015-11-20 15:33:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI NOV 20 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 201433 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 1500 UTC FRI NOV 20 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 110.3W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 45SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 110.3W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 109.9W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.7N 111.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.3N 113.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.8N 114.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 18.6N 115.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 20.5N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 21.5N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 22.5N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 110.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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