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Tropical Storm RICK Forecast Discussion Number 13
2015-11-21 15:33:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM PST SAT NOV 21 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 211432 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 700 AM PST SAT NOV 21 2015 The center of Rick continues to be exposed to the northwest of bursting area of deep convection. The initial intensity remains 35 kt, perhaps generously, based on the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB. The SHIPS model based off GFS model fields shows that the mid-level relative humidity is now below 50 percent and shear will be increasing above 20 kt in the next 24 to 48 hours. These factors, along with cooling SSTs along the track, should result in Rick weakening to a depression later today, and becoming a remnant low in about 36 hours. The initial motion estimate is 290/11, and Rick should gradually slow down and turn poleward during the next 2 to 3 days as the ridge to the north weakens due to an eastward moving mid/upper-level trough. Late in the period, the shallow remnant of Rick should move slowly northward to northeastward in weak low-level flow prior to dissipation. The new NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and is close to the latest GFS/ECMWF consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 17.3N 115.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 17.7N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 18.6N 117.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 19.8N 118.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/1200Z 20.8N 119.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/1200Z 22.0N 119.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/1200Z 22.5N 119.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm RICK Forecast Advisory Number 13
2015-11-21 15:32:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT NOV 21 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 211431 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 1500 UTC SAT NOV 21 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 115.1W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 115.1W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 114.5W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.7N 116.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 18.6N 117.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.8N 118.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 20.8N 119.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 22.0N 119.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 22.5N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 115.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm RICK Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2015-11-21 15:32:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT NOV 21 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 211431 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM RICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 1500 UTC SAT NOV 21 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tropical Storm RICK Graphics
2015-11-21 09:51:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Nov 2015 08:37:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Nov 2015 08:50:46 GMT
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Tropical Storm RICK Forecast Discussion Number 12
2015-11-21 09:37:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM MST SAT NOV 21 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 210836 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 200 AM MST SAT NOV 21 2015 Rick has been moving quickly west-northwestward into a drier air mass, with all its associated deep convection lagging to the south and southeast of the low-level center. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on Dvorak CI numbers of 2.5 from TAFB and SAB, but if the convective organization doesn't improve, these numbers are likely to fall below the tropical storm threshold soon. Vertical shear is expected to increase substantially in about 36 hours, and the cyclone will continue to move toward cooler water and into an environment where the mid-level relative humidity is less than 50 percent. Therefore, Rick will likely weaken to a tropical depression sometime during the next 24 hours and degenerate to a remnant low by 48 hours. The updated NHC intensity forecast closely follows the SHIPS and LGEM guidance. A mid-level ridge extending westward from southern and central Mexico is steering Rick west-northwestward with an initial motion of 285/10 kt. A mid- to upper-level trough located between 125W and 140W is expected to move eastward and erode the western extent of the ridge during the next day or two, causing Rick to slow down and turn northwestward. After 48 hours, the remnant low should turn northward and slow down further in a weaker lower-tropospheric flow regime. No changes were required to the previous NHC track forecast, and the new one is close to the multi-model consensus of the dynamical models, with extra weight given to the typically skillful ECMWF model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 16.9N 113.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 17.2N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 17.9N 116.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 19.0N 117.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 20.1N 118.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/0600Z 21.8N 119.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/0600Z 22.5N 118.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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