je.st
news
Tag: rick
Tropical Storm RICK Graphics
2015-11-20 10:08:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Nov 2015 08:46:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Nov 2015 09:04:44 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
rick
Tropical Storm RICK Forecast Discussion Number 8
2015-11-20 09:44:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM MST FRI NOV 20 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 200844 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 200 AM MST FRI NOV 20 2015 Rick is sending mixed signals tonight with regard to its organization and intensity. On one hand, the convective banding is a little better defined, and Dvorak T-numbers are now T3.0 from SAB and T2.5 from TAFB. On the other hand, recent scatterometer data indicate that the maximum winds remain about 35 kt, with the tropical-storm-force winds confined to a small area west of the center. The initial motion remains west-northwestward, or 295/11 kt. A mid-level ridge that extends westward across central Mexico is forecast to build farther westward over the Pacific waters during the next 24 hours, which should keep the cyclone on a west- northwestward course for the next couple of days. By Sunday, the western extent of the ridge will be eroded by a shortwave trough, causing Rick to turn gradually northwestward and northward on days 3-5. The track models all agree on this general scenario, but the overall guidance envelope has shifted westward from the previous cycle, especially beyond 36 hours. Therefore, the updated NHC track forecast is also shifted westward and lies very close to the TVCE model consensus and the Florida State Superensemble. Deep-layer shear near Rick is very low at the moment and should remain generally light for the next 36-48 hours. In addition, sea surface temperatures are sufficiently warm for intensification. However, a major limiting factor appears to be the presence of mid-level dry air, with the 700-500 mb relative humidity expected to remain around 50 percent for the next few days. Therefore, only slight strengthening is anticipated in the short term. After 48 hours, a marked increase in southwesterly shear should cause Rick to weaken and degenerate to a remnant low, possibly as early as 72 hours, when the associated deep convection is sheared away from the low-level center. The latest global models suggest that the remnant low may now last through 120 hours. There is not much spread among the intensity models, and the official intensity forecast mainly follows the IVCN model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 15.9N 109.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 16.5N 110.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 17.1N 112.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 17.6N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 18.1N 115.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 20.1N 116.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/0600Z 22.0N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/0600Z 22.5N 117.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm RICK Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2015-11-20 09:44:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI NOV 20 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 200844 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM RICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 0900 UTC FRI NOV 20 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 16(17) 15(32) 2(34) 1(35) X(35) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Tropical Storm RICK (EP1/EP212015)
2015-11-20 09:44:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...RICK MAINTAINING 40-MPH SUSTAINED WINDS... As of 2:00 AM MST Fri Nov 20 the center of RICK was located near 15.9, -109.4 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
rick
Tropical Storm RICK Public Advisory Number 8
2015-11-20 09:44:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM MST FRI NOV 20 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 200844 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RICK ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 200 AM MST FRI NOV 20 2015 ...RICK MAINTAINING 40-MPH SUSTAINED WINDS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 109.4W ABOUT 400 MI...640 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rick was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 109.4 West. Rick is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) to the west of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Sites : [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] [39] [40] next »