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Tropical Storm RICK Forecast Advisory Number 8
2015-11-20 09:43:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI NOV 20 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 200843 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 0900 UTC FRI NOV 20 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 109.4W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 109.4W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 109.0W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.5N 110.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 17.1N 112.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.6N 113.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 18.1N 115.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.1N 116.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 22.0N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 22.5N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 109.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm RICK Graphics
2015-11-20 04:08:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Nov 2015 02:40:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Nov 2015 03:04:47 GMT
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Tropical Storm RICK Forecast Discussion Number 7
2015-11-20 03:40:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM MST THU NOV 19 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 200240 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 800 PM MST THU NOV 19 2015 Rick's cloud pattern has eroded some during the past 6 hours with previously solid bands of convection in the northern semicircle having become more fragmented during the past few hours. In addition, numerous small arc cloud lines have been noted propagating away from the cyclone, which is indicative of dry mid-level air having penetrated into the inner core region. This supposition is further supported by a 20/0006 UTC AMSU pass indicating only a narrow fragmented band of convection is present in the northwestern quadrant of the storm. Therefore, the initial intensity of 35 kt remains unchanged for this advisory, which is lower than the available satellite intensity estimates. The initial motion estimate is 295/09 kt and is based primarily on passive microwave satellite data. A mid-level ridge over central Mexico is forecast to build westward to the north and east of Rick during the next 24-36 hours, while a large upper-level low located near 27N 138W is expected to fill and gradually open up into a broad trough by 48-72 hours. The combination of these two steering mechanisms should keep Rick moving west-northwestward for the next 48 hours, followed by a decrease in forward speed and a gradual turn toward the northwest and north at 72 h and 96 h, respectively. The official forecast track was only nudged slightly to the left of the previous advisory track, and essentially lies down the middle of NHC track guidance envelope. Rick is forecast to move into a weak vertical wind shear regime during the next 24-36 hours while remaining over SSTs of 29 deg C. These favorable conditions would normally support intensification of a tropical cyclone. However, the ragged and elongated inner-core wind field, coupled with additional entrainment of drier mid-level air, is expected to inhibit any significant development and organization of deep convection. By 48 hours and beyond, an increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear to more than 25 kt is forecast to induce gradual weakening, with Rick becoming a remnant low by 96 hours when the cyclone will be moving over cooler waters at that time. Rick is expected to dissipate day 5, if not sooner. NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous advisory and remains below the multi-model consensus, IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 15.2N 108.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 15.9N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 16.5N 111.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 17.2N 112.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 17.8N 113.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 19.5N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 21.6N 115.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm RICK Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2015-11-20 03:40:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI NOV 20 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 200240 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM RICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 0300 UTC FRI NOV 20 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 6(19) 1(20) X(20) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm RICK (EP1/EP212015)
2015-11-20 03:39:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...RICK MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 8:00 PM MST Thu Nov 19 the center of RICK was located near 15.2, -108.1 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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