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Summary for Hurricane ARTHUR (AT1/AL012014)

2014-07-03 19:59:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA... As of 2:00 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 the center of ARTHUR was located near 32.9, -78.3 with movement NNE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

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Hurricane ARTHUR Public Advisory Number 11A

2014-07-03 19:59:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014 000 WTNT31 KNHC 031759 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 200 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014 ...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.9N 78.3W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER * PAMLICO SOUND * EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY * THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY * WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. ANY UNEXPECTED DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE LEFT...OR AN EXPANSION OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE STORM...WOULD REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR PART OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING AREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR. INTERESTS IN NOVA SCOTIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.3 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE WHEN IT PASSES OVER OR NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING FRIDAY NIGHT AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYLONE SATURDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. NOAA BUOY 41004 LOCATED ABOUT 55 MILES EAST- SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA HAS RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 52 MPH WITH A GUST TO 67 MPH. THE LATEST MINUMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AND SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WARNING AREAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BEGINNING THIS EVENING. ANY UNEXPECTED DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE LEFT...OR AN EXPANSION OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE STORM...WOULD REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR PART OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...2 TO 4 FT SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...1 TO 3 FT EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...1 TO 2 FT THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE DETAILS. RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE UPPER COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING AREAS FROM THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH CAROLINA. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Hurricane ARTHUR Graphics

2014-07-03 17:40:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2014 15:40:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2014 15:05:51 GMT

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Hurricane ARTHUR Forecast Advisory Number 11

2014-07-03 17:06:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 03 2014 000 WTNT21 KNHC 031506 TCMAT1 HURRICANE ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 1500 UTC THU JUL 03 2014 CORRECTED FORWARD SPEED CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER * PAMLICO SOUND * EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY * THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY * WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. ANY DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE LEFT...OR AN INCREASE IN THE FORECAST SIZE OF ARTHUR WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ALL OR PART OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING AREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR. INTERESTS IN NOVA SCOTIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 78.5W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..110NE 110SE 70SW 70NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 78.5W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 78.7W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 33.8N 77.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 36.3N 74.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 39.4N 70.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 130SE 110SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 42.7N 66.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 150SE 150SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 48.5N 58.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 150SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 240SE 210SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 55.0N 50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 60.0N 45.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.4N 78.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Summary for Hurricane ARTHUR (AT1/AL012014)

2014-07-03 17:04:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...ARTHUR STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... As of 11:00 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 the center of ARTHUR was located near 32.4, -78.5 with movement NNE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 981 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

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