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Hurricane ARTHUR Public Advisory Number 11
2014-07-03 17:04:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2014 000 WTNT31 KNHC 031504 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 11...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 1100 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2014 CORRECTED FORWARD SPEED IN SUMMARY BLOCK TO 10 MPH ...ARTHUR STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.4N 78.5W ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER * PAMLICO SOUND * EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY * THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY * WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. ANY DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE LEFT...OR AN INCREASE IN THE FORECAST SIZE OF ARTHUR WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ALL OR PART OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING AREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR. INTERESTS IN NOVA SCOTIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. DATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE WHEN IT PASSES OVER OR NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING FRIDAY NIGHT AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYLONE SATURDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. THE LATEST MINUMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AND SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WARNING AREAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BEGINNING THIS EVENING. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...2 TO 4 FT SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...1 TO 3 FT EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...1 TO 2 FT THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE DETAILS. RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE UPPER COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING AREAS FROM THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH CAROLINA. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane ARTHUR Forecast Discussion Number 11
2014-07-03 16:59:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 031459 TCDAT1 HURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 1100 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2014 Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that Arthur continues to strengthen this morning. The Air Force plane has reported peak 700 mb flight-level winds of 83 kt. The NOAA aircraft reported 91 kt from 8,000 ft, and both aircraft have measured surface winds of around 80 kt from the SFMR. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 80 kt. Arthur is forecast to remain in low shear and move over warm water during the next 24 hours. This should allow for some additional intensification. The updated NHC intensity forecast now calls for Arthur to reach category two strength prior to its landfall or closest approach to the coast, in agreement with tightly clustered intensity guidance. After that time, Arthur will be moving over cooler waters north of the Gulf Stream, and the shear is forecast to increase as Arthur interacts with a deep-layer trough that will be moving off the east coast of the United States. Arthur is forecast to become a strong extratropical cyclone in 48 hours and should steadily weaken after that. Aircraft and radar data indicate that Arthur is moving a little faster and appears to have turned north-northeastward, although the motion over the last hour or two was northward. The hurricane should turn northeastward later today and accelerate ahead of the deep-layer trough nearing the U.S. east coast. The models are in good agreement in showing the center of Arthur grazing the North Carolina coast during the next 24 hours, however only a slight westward shift in the track would bring the strongest winds inland over eastern North Carolina. After 24 hours, the spread in the models increases some with the GFS and HWRF faster and along the western side of the guidance. The ECMWF is a bit slower and to the right. The NHC forecast leans toward the faster GFS solution, but has been adjusted a little to the east at days three through five. The forecast track brings the center of the cyclone near or over portions of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland in two to three days. Users are reminded to not focus of the exact forecast track since the associated hazards extend well away from the center. The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is available at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 32.4N 78.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 33.8N 77.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 36.3N 74.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 39.4N 70.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 42.7N 66.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 06/1200Z 48.5N 58.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 07/1200Z 55.0N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 08/1200Z 60.0N 45.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane ARTHUR Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2014-07-03 16:53:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 03 2014 000 FONT11 KNHC 031453 PWSAT1 HURRICANE ARTHUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 1500 UTC THU JUL 03 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 2(17) X(17) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 40(40) 1(41) X(41) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 60(60) 1(61) X(61) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 2(20) X(20) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 65(65) 1(66) X(66) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 1(28) X(28) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 70(74) X(74) X(74) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) X(34) X(34) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 68(69) X(69) X(69) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) X(31) X(31) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 38(43) X(43) X(43) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 24(24) 53(77) X(77) X(77) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 35(38) X(38) X(38) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 54(55) 10(65) X(65) X(65) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) 10(29) X(29) X(29) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 31(38) X(38) X(38) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 19(36) X(36) X(36) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) 9(28) X(28) X(28) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) EASTPORT ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) 19(19) 20(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) 35(35) 19(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) 12(12) 6(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MONTAUK POINT 34 X 1( 1) 16(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW YORK CITY 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEWARK NJ 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TRENTON NJ 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BALTIMORE MD 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DOVER DE 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WASHINGTON DC 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 15(15) 7(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 1 30(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) NORFOLK NAS 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 1 38(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) NORFOLK VA 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WALLOPS CDA 34 1 20(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) WALLOPS CDA 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 13 87(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAPE HATTERAS 50 1 94(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X 72(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) MOREHEAD CITY 34 93 6(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOREHEAD CITY 50 18 72(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) MOREHEAD CITY 64 4 47(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) WILMINGTON NC 34 91 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) WILMINGTON NC 50 36 2(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) WILMINGTON NC 64 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 30 2(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane ARTHUR Graphics
2014-07-03 15:33:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2014 11:59:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2014 13:31:47 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane ARTHUR (AT1/AL012014)
2014-07-03 13:57:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ARTHUR STRENGTHENS... ...OUTER RAINBANDS REACHING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA... As of 8:00 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 the center of ARTHUR was located near 31.8, -78.7 with movement NNE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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