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Hurricane ARTHUR Public Advisory Number 10A
2014-07-03 13:57:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2014 000 WTNT31 KNHC 031157 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 800 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2014 ...ARTHUR STRENGTHENS... ...OUTER RAINBANDS REACHING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.8N 78.7W ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER * PAMLICO SOUND * EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY * THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY * WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. ANY DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE LEFT...OR AN INCREASE IN THE FORECAST SIZE OF ARTHUR WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ALL OR PART OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING AREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS LOCATED BY HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND NOAA DOPPLER RADARS NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.7 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY... FOLLOWED BY A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. DATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN THE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WARNING AREAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...2 TO 4 FT PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...2 TO 4 FT SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...1 TO 3 FT EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...1 TO 2 FT THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE DETAILS. RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE UPPER COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING AREAS FROM THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH CAROLINA. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane ARTHUR Graphics
2014-07-03 11:10:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2014 08:50:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2014 09:05:47 GMT
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Hurricane ARTHUR Forecast Discussion Number 10
2014-07-03 10:59:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 030859 TCDAT1 HURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 500 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2014 Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Arthur has reached hurricane strength. Both aircraft showed several SFMR winds of 60 to 63 kt southeast of the center, and the NOAA aircraft reported a peak flight-level wind of 79 kt at 8,000 feet. Based on these data the initial intensity is set to 65 kt. Radar data show that Arthur was still having difficulty maintaining an eyewall overnight, likely due to dry mid/upper-level air being entrained into the storm. However, the overall radar presentation has improved during the past couple of hours. Some gradual intensification is forecast during the next 24 hours while the cyclone is in an environment of low shear and moves over warm waters. After that time, however, the shear increases dramatically as Arthur interacts with a deep-layer baroclinic zone moving off of the east coast of North America, and global model fields show Arthur completing extratropical transition by 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and remains close to the multi-model consensus IVCN through 24 hours and is a little below the consensus after that time. Radar data and aircraft fixes indicate that the current motion is now a little east of due north, or 010 degrees at 8 knots. Arthur should begin to recurve today ahead of the aforementioned deep-layer trough, and the track model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and remains near the middle of the dynamical model envelope and close to the TVCA multi-model consensus. The official forecast shows the center of Arthur moving very close to the North Carolina Outer Banks late tonight and early Friday. Arthur should then accelerate northeastward offshore of the mid-Atlantic states and the northeastern U.S. Friday and Friday night, and move into the Canadian Maritimes by Saturday before turning northward by the end of the period. The track, intensity, and wind radii forecast during the extratropical phase of Arthur have been coordinated with the Ocean Prediction Center. The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is available at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 31.3N 79.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 32.5N 78.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 34.7N 76.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 37.5N 72.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 40.9N 67.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 47.5N 60.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 07/0600Z 54.0N 52.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 08/0600Z 60.0N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Summary for Hurricane ARTHUR (AT1/AL012014)
2014-07-03 10:49:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ARTHUR NOW A HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TONIGHT... As of 5:00 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 the center of ARTHUR was located near 31.3, -79.1 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane ARTHUR Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2014-07-03 10:49:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 03 2014 000 FONT11 KNHC 030849 PWSAT1 HURRICANE ARTHUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 0900 UTC THU JUL 03 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 6(21) X(21) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 8(31) X(31) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 5(39) X(39) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 53(53) X(53) X(53) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 45(45) X(45) X(45) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) X(30) X(30) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 58(61) X(61) X(61) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) X(24) X(24) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 42(53) X(53) X(53) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) X(21) X(21) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) X(29) X(29) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) X(28) X(28) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) X(23) X(23) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) EASTPORT ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) X(16) X(16) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 28(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 40(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) BALTIMORE MD 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DOVER DE 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WASHINGTON DC 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 3( 3) 20(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NORFOLK NAS 34 1 8( 9) 16(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) NORFOLK VA 34 1 10(11) 20(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) NORFOLK VA 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 4( 4) 19(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) GREENSBORO NC 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE HATTERAS 34 2 83(85) 9(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X 43(43) 29(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X 16(16) 18(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) CHARLOTTE NC 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 2 92(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X 66(66) 2(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X 25(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) WILMINGTON NC 34 10 65(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) WILMINGTON NC 50 1 21(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) WILMINGTON NC 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 34 15(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) MYRTLE BEACH 50 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 15 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) AUGUSTA GA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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