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Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Discussion Number 20
2015-10-02 22:56:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 022055 TCDAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 500 PM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015 Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Joaquin has weakened a little since the last advisory, with the central pressure rising to 942 mb. Based on this, the initial intensity is decreased to 110 kt. Subsequent observations from San Salvador Island and dropsondes from a NASA aircraft suggest the pressure is still near 942 mb. While the hurricane continues to produce cold cloud tops in the eyewall, the convective pattern currently looks ragged in infrared imagery, and only occasional hints of a eye are apparent in visible imagery. The initial motion is now 360/6. Water vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level ridge to the north and northeast of the hurricane, while a deep-layer trough and associated surface front are located over the southeastern United States. This system is forecast to move slowly eastward with a non-tropical low forming along the front during the next couple of days. While this occurs, a mid- to upper-level low currently centered near 30N 64W should move west-northwestward to the north of Joaquin. These developments should steer Joaquin northward for the next few hours, followed by a turn toward the northeast. The track guidance is now in good agreement that Joaquin will move generally northeastward between the United States and Bermuda, with a short-lived northward turn in the 48-72 hour period. Eventually, the cyclone is expected to move into the westerlies and move quickly east-northeastward across the North Atlantic. The new forecast track is similar to the previous forecast and now lies near the consensus models. Joaquin is forecast to remain in an environment of light vertical wind shear for another 12-24 hours or so, and during this time some fluctuations in intensity are possible. After 24 hours, the shear is forecast to increase, which should start a steady weakening. Extratropical transition is expected to begin around 96 hours and be complete by 120 hours. Overall, the new intensity forecast is an update of the previous advisory and lies near the intensity consensus. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Hurricane conditions over portions of the Bahamas should continue for several more hours. 2. Swells from a hurricane moving even far offshore of the U.S. east coast can still cause life-threatening surf and rip-current conditions. Please see products from your local National Weather Service forecast office. For information on the heavy rains occurring along the U.S. Atlantic states that are mostly unrelated to Hurricane Joaquin, please see products from the NWS Weather Prediction Center and your local forecast office. 3. Since the direct threat of hurricane conditions to land areas is diminishing significantly, this will be the last set of key messages unless the threat increases. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 24.1N 74.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 25.1N 73.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 26.9N 72.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 29.2N 70.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 31.7N 68.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 36.5N 67.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 40.5N 60.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 45.0N 46.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2015-10-02 22:56:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 02 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 022055 PWSAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 2100 UTC FRI OCT 02 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 9(22) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 19(43) X(43) X(43) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GRAND BAHAMA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ANDROS 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GREAT EXUMA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GREAT EXUMA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN SALVADOR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN SALVADOR 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN SALVADOR 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MAYAGUANA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND TURK 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Hurricane JOAQUIN (AT1/AL112015)
2015-10-02 22:55:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOAQUIN WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS THE EYE PASSES NEAR SAN SALVADOR ISLAND... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS... As of 5:00 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 the center of JOAQUIN was located near 24.1, -74.7 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 942 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Public Advisory Number 20
2015-10-02 22:55:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 022055 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 500 PM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015 ...JOAQUIN WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS THE EYE PASSES NEAR SAN SALVADOR ISLAND... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.1N 74.7W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WNW OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS ABOUT 825 MI...1330 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Bermuda. The Government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Cuba. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Central Bahamas * Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence * The Acklins, Crooked Island, and Mayaguana in the southeastern Bahamas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bimini * Andros Island A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Remainder of the southeastern Bahamas including the Turks and Caicos Islands * Andros Island A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 74.7 West. Joaquin is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the northeast and an increase in forward speed are expected tonight, with a northeastward motion continuing through Sunday. On the forecast track, the core of the strongest winds of Joaquin will continue moving over portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas for a few more hours, then move away from the Bahamas later tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Joaquin is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb (27.82 inches). A Bahamas Meteorology Department station on San Salvador recently reported a pressure of 944.3 mb (27.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue across portions of the central Bahamas for the next several hours. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the northwestern Bahamas tonight. Tropical storm conditions will affect portions of the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands this evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Bermuda on Sunday. STORM SURGE: A very dangerous and life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 12 feet above normal tide levels in the central Bahamas in areas of onshore flow. A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels is expected in the remainder of the Bahamas within the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 12 to 18 inches over the central Bahamas with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches are expected over the southeastern Bahamas, northwestern Bahamas, eastern Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. This rainfall could result in life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells have begun to affect portions of the southeastern coast of the United States and will spread northward along the east coast of the United States through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Even though Joaquin is expected to pass well east of the coast of the United States, a prolonged period of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Advisory Number 20
2015-10-02 22:55:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 02 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 022054 TCMAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 2100 UTC FRI OCT 02 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CUBA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL BAHAMAS * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS... ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE * THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...AND MAYAGUANA IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BIMINI * ANDROS ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * ANDROS ISLAND A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 74.7W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 942 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 45SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT.......140NE 180SE 150SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..480NE 180SE 90SW 390NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 74.7W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 74.8W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 25.1N 73.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 45SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 26.9N 72.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 45SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 160SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 29.2N 70.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 50SE 45SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 170SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 31.7N 68.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 90SW 70NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 170SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 36.5N 67.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 180SE 160SW 220NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 40.5N 60.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 45.0N 46.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.1N 74.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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