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Hurricane JOAQUIN Public Advisory Number 22
2015-10-03 10:37:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 030837 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 500 AM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015 ...JOAQUIN MOVING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS WHERE CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.2N 73.1W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM NE OF SAN SALVADOR ABOUT 700 MI...1130 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Central Bahamas * The Acklins, Crooked Island, and Mayaguana in the southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Remainder of the southeastern Bahamas including the Turks and Caicos Islands * Bermuda A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For Bermuda, the tropical storm conditions are expected within the next 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was located near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 73.1 West. Joaquin is moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight with an increase in forward speed. A turn toward the north-northeast is forecast on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Joaquin will continue to move away from the Bahamas today, and pass west of Bermuda on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Joaquin is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast to begin later today, followed by steadier weakening Sunday and Sunday night. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to affect portions of the central and southeastern Bahamas this morning. Tropical storm conditions are first expected to reach Bermuda by Sunday morning, with hurricane conditions possible by Sunday afternoon. STORM SURGE: A very dangerous and life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 12 feet above normal tide levels in the central Bahamas in areas of onshore flow. A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels is expected in the remainder of the Bahamas within the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Water levels should slowly subside today as Joaquin moves away from the Bahamas. RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches over the Bahamas, eastern Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands through today. Isolated maximum storm-total amounts of 25 inches are possible in the central Bahamas. Outer rain bands of Joaquin will begin to affect Bermuda by early Sunday, and Joaquin is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rainfall over Bermuda through Monday. This rainfall could result in life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect portions of the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are affecting much of the southeastern coast of the United States and will spread northward along the east coast of the United States through the weekend. Swells from Joaquin will begin affecting Bermuda today and continue through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Even though Joaquin is expected to pass well east of the coast of the United States, a prolonged period of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Advisory Number 22
2015-10-03 10:36:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 03 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 030836 TCMAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 0900 UTC SAT OCT 03 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL BAHAMAS * THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...AND MAYAGUANA IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR BERMUDA...THE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 73.1W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 45SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......140NE 180SE 150SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..585NE 240SE 180SW 525NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 73.1W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 73.7W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 26.7N 71.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 45SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 29.2N 69.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 200SE 160SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 31.8N 67.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 160SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 34.1N 66.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 38.0N 62.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 65NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 180SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 42.5N 50.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 47.0N 32.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.2N 73.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Graphics
2015-10-03 07:35:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 03 Oct 2015 05:35:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Oct 2015 03:05:45 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane JOAQUIN (AT1/AL112015)
2015-10-03 07:34:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DANGEROUS JOAQUIN MOVING AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT... As of 2:00 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 the center of JOAQUIN was located near 24.8, -73.7 with movement NE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 945 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Public Advisory Number 21A
2015-10-03 07:34:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 030534 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOAQUIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 200 AM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015 ...DANGEROUS JOAQUIN MOVING AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.8N 73.7W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM NE OF SAN SALVADOR ABOUT 745 MI...1205 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Central Bahamas * The Acklins, Crooked Island, and Mayaguana in the southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Remainder of the southeastern Bahamas including the Turks and Caicos Islands * Bermuda A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For Bermuda, the tropical storm conditions are expected within the next 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 73.7 West. Joaquin is moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion should continue with a gradual increase in forward speed during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of the strongest winds of Joaquin will continue to move away from the Bahamas this morning. Maximum sustained winds remain near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Joaquin is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The minimum central pressure based on data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 945 mb (27.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue across portions of the central Bahamas for the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions will continue to affect portions of the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Bermuda on Sunday, with hurricane conditions possible by late Sunday. STORM SURGE: A very dangerous and life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 12 feet above normal tide levels in the central Bahamas in areas of onshore flow. A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels is expected in the remainder of the Bahamas within the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Water levels should begin to subside overnight and later today as Joaquin moves away from the Bahamas. RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches over the Bahamas, eastern Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands through today. Isolated maximum storm-total amounts of 25 inches are possible in the central Bahamas. Outer rain bands of Joaquin will begin to affect Bermuda by early Sunday, and Joaquin is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rainfall over Bermuda through Monday. This rainfall could result in life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect portions of the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells have begun to affect portions of the southeastern coast of the United States and will spread northward along the east coast of the United States through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Even though Joaquin is expected to pass well east of the coast of the United States, a prolonged period of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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