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Hurricane JOAQUIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19

2015-10-02 16:54:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 02 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 021453 PWSAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1500 UTC FRI OCT 02 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 30(40) X(40) X(40) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GRAND BAHAMA 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 10 3(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ANDROS 34 10 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) GREAT EXUMA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GREAT EXUMA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GREAT EXUMA 64 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN SALVADOR 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN SALVADOR 64 95 2(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) MAYAGUANA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MAYAGUANA 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND TURK 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAMAGUEY 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Summary for Hurricane JOAQUIN (AT1/AL112015)

2015-10-02 16:53:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS JOAQUIN NOW MOVING NORTHWARD AS IT BATTERS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TODAY... As of 11:00 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 the center of JOAQUIN was located near 23.5, -74.8 with movement N at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 939 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

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Hurricane JOAQUIN Public Advisory Number 19

2015-10-02 16:53:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 021453 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS JOAQUIN NOW MOVING NORTHWARD AS IT BATTERS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.5N 74.8W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM S OF RUM CAY BAHAMAS ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSW OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Central Bahamas * Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence * The Acklins, Crooked Island, and Mayaguana in the southeastern Bahamas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bimini * Andros Island A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Remainder of the southeastern Bahamas including the Turks and Caicos Islands * Andros Island * Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Joaquin. A Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watch may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 74.8 West. Joaquin is moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h), and a northward motion at a faster forward speed is expected today. A turn toward the northeast is expected tonight with an additional increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, the core of the strongest winds of Joaquin will continue moving over portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas today. Joaquin will begin to move away from the Bahamas tonight and Saturday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Joaquin is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next 24 hours. Slow weakening is expected to begin on Saturday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The minimum central pressure from Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 939 mb (27.73 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue across portions of the central and southeastern Bahamas through today. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the northwestern Bahamas today. Tropical storm conditions will affect other portions of the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands today. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of eastern Cuba through this morning. STORM SURGE: A very dangerous and life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 12 feet above normal tide levels in the central Bahamas in areas of onshore flow. A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels is expected in the remainder of the Bahamas within the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 12 to 18 inches over the central Bahamas with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are expected over the southeastern Bahamas, with 2 to 4 inches over the northwestern Bahamas, eastern Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. This rainfall could result in life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells have begun to affect portions of the southeastern coast of the United States and will spread northward along the east coast of the United States through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Even though Joaquin is expected to pass well east of the coast of the United States, a prolonged period of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Advisory Number 19

2015-10-02 16:52:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 02 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 021452 TCMAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1500 UTC FRI OCT 02 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL BAHAMAS * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS... ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE * THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...AND MAYAGUANA IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BIMINI * ANDROS ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * ANDROS ISLAND * CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOAQUIN. A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 74.8W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 0 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 939 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT.......140NE 180SE 160SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..480NE 180SE 90SW 390NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 74.8W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 74.8W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 24.4N 74.4W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 160SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 26.1N 73.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 45NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 160SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 28.2N 71.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 45NW. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 170SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 30.6N 69.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 170SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 35.5N 67.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. 34 KT...220NE 180SE 160SW 220NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 39.5N 63.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 43.5N 49.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 74.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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