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Hurricane JOAQUIN Public Advisory Number 18
2015-10-02 10:41:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 020841 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 500 AM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS JOAQUIN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AS IT BATTERS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.3N 74.7W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NE OF CLARENCE LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF SAN SALVADOR MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Central Bahamas * Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence * The Acklins, Crooked Island, and Mayaguana in the southeastern Bahamas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bimini * Andros Island A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Remainder of the southeastern Bahamas including the Turks and Caicos Islands * Andros Island * Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Los Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Joaquin. A Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watch may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 74.7 West. Joaquin is drifting toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A faster northward motion is expected to begin later today, followed by a turn toward the northeast and an increase in forward speed tonight and Saturday. On the forecast track, the core of the strongest winds of Joaquin will continue moving over portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas today. Joaquin will begin to move away from the Bahamas tonight and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Joaquin is a dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next 24 hours. Slow weakening is expected to begin on Saturday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 935 mb (27.61 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue across portions of the central and southeastern Bahamas through today. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the northwestern Bahamas today. Tropical storm conditions will affect other portions of the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands today. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of eastern Cuba through this morning. STORM SURGE: A very dangerous and life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 12 feet above normal tide levels in the central Bahamas in areas of onshore flow. A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels is expected in the remainder of the Bahamas within the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 12 to 18 inches over the central Bahamas with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are expected over the southeastern Bahamas, with 2 to 4 inches over the northwestern Bahamas, eastern Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. This rainfall could result in life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells have begun to affect portions of the southeastern coast of the United States and will spread northward along the east coast of the United States through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Regardless of Joaquin's track, a prolonged period of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2015-10-02 10:39:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 02 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 020839 PWSAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 0900 UTC FRI OCT 02 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 1(17) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 3(26) X(26) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GRAND BAHAMA 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 17 7(24) 3(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 23 5(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) GREAT EXUMA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GREAT EXUMA 50 75 1(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) GREAT EXUMA 64 18 2(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) SAN SALVADOR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN SALVADOR 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN SALVADOR 64 72 16(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) MAYAGUANA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MAYAGUANA 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND TURK 34 4 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CAMAGUEY 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Advisory Number 18
2015-10-02 10:39:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 02 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 020839 TCMAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 0900 UTC FRI OCT 02 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL BAHAMAS * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS... ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE * THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...AND MAYAGUANA IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BIMINI * ANDROS ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * ANDROS ISLAND * CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LOS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOAQUIN. A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 74.7W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT.......140NE 180SE 160SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 150SE 120SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 74.7W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 74.7W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 23.9N 74.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 160SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 25.4N 74.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 45NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 160SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 27.4N 72.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 45NW. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 170SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 30.0N 70.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 170SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 34.8N 69.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. 34 KT...220NE 180SE 160SW 220NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 39.0N 66.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 43.5N 54.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 74.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Graphics
2015-10-02 07:33:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 02 Oct 2015 05:33:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 02 Oct 2015 03:04:48 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane JOAQUIN (AT1/AL112015)
2015-10-02 07:32:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE JOAQUIN STILL POUNDING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH THIS MORNING... As of 2:00 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 the center of JOAQUIN was located near 23.0, -74.7 with movement W at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 935 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
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