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Hurricane Marie Graphics
2020-10-04 10:34:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Oct 2020 08:34:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Oct 2020 09:33:13 GMT
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Hurricane Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2020-10-04 10:33:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 040833 PWSEP3 HURRICANE MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0900 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 130W 34 77 12(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) 20N 130W 50 11 17(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) 20N 130W 64 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 130W 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 135W 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 8(12) 2(14) 1(15) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Summary for Hurricane Marie (EP3/EP182020)
2020-10-04 10:33:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIE CONTINUES WEAKENING OVER COOLER WATERS... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun Oct 4 the center of Marie was located near 20.1, -128.1 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 967 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
Hurricane Marie Public Advisory Number 21
2020-10-04 10:33:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Oct 04 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 040833 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 AM PDT Sun Oct 04 2020 ...MARIE CONTINUES WEAKENING OVER COOLER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 128.1W ABOUT 1185 MI...1905 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 128.1 West. Marie is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). The hurricane is forecast to move generally northwestward or west-northwestward with little change in forward speed for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Marie should quickly weaken to a tropical storm by early Monday, with further weakening likely through the middle of the week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 21
2020-10-04 10:32:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 040832 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0900 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 128.1W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT.......130NE 130SE 110SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 330SE 270SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 128.1W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 127.9W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.5N 129.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.1N 130.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.7N 131.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.4N 133.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 20SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.2N 134.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 24.0N 135.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 24.9N 136.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 26.0N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 128.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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