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Tropical Storm Jerry Graphics
2019-09-21 16:54:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 14:54:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 15:24:56 GMT
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Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 17
2019-09-21 16:53:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 211453 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019 An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter plane has investigated Jerry this morning and found that the tropical storm has become quite disorganized. The highest flight level winds reported by the plane at the 700 mb level were 59 kt, which supports holding the intensity at 55 kt. The highest reliable SFMR winds were lower and the minimum pressure estimated from the plane data was 999 mb, so its possible that Jerry's winds are actually a little lower. Jerry is still moving northwestward, with an initial motion of 315/12 kt. The track guidance is still in very good agreement on the forecast track for the tropical storm, and only small changes were made to the track forecast. Jerry should continue northwestward today, and then turn northward on Sunday toward a break in the subtropical ridge. By late Monday or Tuesday, Jerry should turn northeastward and begin to accelerate in that direction ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough, likely passing near Bermuda late Tuesday or early Wednesday. The track guidance is still tightly clustered, especially for the first 72 h of the forecast, and the NHC forecast is near the consensus throughout the 5-day period. Because Jerry is not well organized at the moment, no strengthening is expected in the short term. The NHC forecast now calls for little change in Jerry's intensity for the next couple days, and I can't rule out that additional weakening could occur later today or tomorrow. Most of the guidance suggests that restrengthening could then occur once Jerry turns northeastward ahead of the aforementioned mid-latitude trough, perhaps in part due to baroclinic forcing. Jerry is still forecast to become a hurricane again before the end of the forecast period, but the NHC forecast is now on the high side of the guidance, a little above the consensus. Key Messages: 1. Jerry is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves near Bermuda late Tuesday or early Wednesday. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system may have on the island but interests there should monitor the progress of Jerry. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 22.0N 65.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 23.3N 66.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 25.0N 66.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 26.4N 67.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 27.8N 67.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 30.6N 66.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 34.5N 62.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 38.5N 57.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Storm Jerry (AT5/AL102019)
2019-09-21 16:53:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF JERRY PASSING WELL NORTH OF PUERTO RICO... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Sep 21 the center of Jerry was located near 22.0, -65.0 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 17
2019-09-21 16:53:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 211452 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019 ...CENTER OF JERRY PASSING WELL NORTH OF PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.0N 65.0W ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM S OF BERMUDA ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Jerry. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 65.0 West. Jerry is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. Jerry is forecast to turn northward on Sunday and then accelerate northeastward early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will continue to pass well north Puerto Rico today and pass well east of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday. Data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter plane indicate that the maximum sustained winds of Jerry remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next several days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the hurricane hunter plane is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2019-09-21 16:53:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 211452 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 1500 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) 44(74) 1(75) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 28(33) 1(34) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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