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Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 24

2019-09-23 10:35:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 230835 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 0900 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 67.7W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 150SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 90SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 67.7W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 67.6W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 28.6N 68.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 30.1N 68.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...130NE 150SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 31.3N 68.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 32.6N 66.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 35.5N 60.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 60SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 37.0N 54.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 37.0N 48.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N 67.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 23/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Tropical Storm Jerry Graphics

2019-09-23 07:30:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 05:30:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 03:25:03 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm Jerry (AT5/AL102019)

2019-09-23 07:30:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...JERRY MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... As of 2:00 AM AST Mon Sep 23 the center of Jerry was located near 27.5, -67.5 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 23A

2019-09-23 07:30:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 069 WTNT35 KNHC 230530 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 23A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 200 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...JERRY MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.5N 67.5W ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 67.5 West. Jerry is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion should continue today. A turn to the north is expected Monday night followed by a turn to the northeast on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda by Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Tuesday. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall across Bermuda through Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island during the next few days. Swells will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico for another day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

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