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Summary for Hurricane Jerry (AT5/AL102019)

2019-09-20 16:57:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...JERRY WEAKER BUT HEAVY RAINS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Sep 20 the center of Jerry was located near 18.8, -60.3 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

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Hurricane Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13

2019-09-20 16:57:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 201457 PWSAT5 HURRICANE JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 37(50) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VIEQUES PR 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT MAARTEN 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Hurricane Jerry Public Advisory Number 13

2019-09-20 16:57:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 201457 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 20 2019 ...JERRY WEAKER BUT HEAVY RAINS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 60.3W ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM NE OF BARBUDA ABOUT 190 MI...300 KM ENE OF ANGUILLA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12-24 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 60.3 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will move north of the northern Leeward Islands later today, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday, be well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday and turn northward on Monday. Data from the Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast during the next day or so, with some re-strengthening possible early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure from the plane data is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda northwest across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods. Jerry is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas later today. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Hurricane Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 13

2019-09-20 16:56:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 201456 TCMAT5 HURRICANE JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN * ST. BARTHELEMY * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12-24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JERRY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 60.3W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 60.3W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 59.6W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.6N 62.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.9N 64.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.3N 66.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.6N 68.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 26.5N 69.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 29.0N 67.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 33.0N 64.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 60.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 20/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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