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Hurricane Jerry Graphics
2019-09-20 19:55:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 17:55:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 15:25:03 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Jerry (AT5/AL102019)
2019-09-20 19:54:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JERRY'S RAINBANDS APPROACHING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 2:00 PM AST Fri Sep 20 the center of Jerry was located near 19.2, -61.2 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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Hurricane Jerry Public Advisory Number 13A
2019-09-20 19:54:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 201754 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 200 PM AST Fri Sep 20 2019 ...JERRY'S RAINBANDS APPROACHING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 61.2W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM NNE OF BARBUDA ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ENE OF ANGUILLA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12-24 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 61.2 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will move north of the northern Leeward Islands later today, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday, be well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday and turn northward on Monday. Data from the Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast during the next day or so, with some re-strengthening possible early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure from the plane data is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda northwest across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods. Jerry is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas later today. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Jerry Graphics
2019-09-20 17:00:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 15:00:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 15:25:03 GMT
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Hurricane Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 13
2019-09-20 16:57:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 201457 TCDAT5 Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 20 2019 Data from both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Jerry is weakening quickly, and radar images from NOAA show no sign of the eyewall reported on the last mission. Maximum flight-level winds on the mission were about 78 kt, with SFMR values near 70 kt, and the central pressure has risen about 10 mb overnight. These observations also agree with the latest satellite imagery that shows a less organized cyclone, with the center on the far northwestern edge of a distorted central dense overcast. A blend of all these data gives an initial wind speed estimate of 75 kt. Jerry is moving about the same as before, west-northwestward at 15 kt. The hurricane should gradually bend to the right and slow down during the next few days while the cyclone is steered around the western periphery of a weakening subtropical ridge. The guidance is tightly packed on the forecast through Monday, and little change was made to the previous NHC prediction. At longer range, a mid-latitude trough interaction should turn the hurricane northward and northeastward, but the models are really struggling on how quickly this occurs. While yesterday much of the guidance had Jerry accelerating ahead of the trough, today's models have slowed everything down as the trough looks like it could weaken before fully recurving the cyclone. The new track forecast is considerably slower than the last one beyond 72 hours, about as much as continuity allows, and later forecasts could slow Jerry down even more. Northwesterly shear is forecast to persist near Jerry for the next day or two, and some weakening is expected. The intensity forecast is reduced from the previous one, and could be a bit too high in the short term given recent trends. In a few days, the aforementioned trough interaction is anticipated, but it is next to impossible to know at this lead time whether the trough will weaken or strengthen the cyclone, so no forecast change is made. It is a little tempting to raise the intensity by the end, given the recent weaker mid-latitude trough in the models, but there's just too much track uncertainty to mess with the intensity forecast at this time. Key Messages: 1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to move north of the northern Leeward Islands, heavy rainfall and flash floods are possible there today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 18.8N 60.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 19.6N 62.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 20.9N 64.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 22.3N 66.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 23.6N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 26.5N 69.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 29.0N 67.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 25/1200Z 33.0N 64.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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