je.st
news
Tag: jerry
Summary for Tropical Storm Jerry (AT5/AL102019)
2019-09-22 11:00:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JERRY TURNS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Sep 22 the center of Jerry was located near 25.0, -66.9 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
jerry
tropical
Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 20
2019-09-22 11:00:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 220900 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 ...JERRY TURNS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 66.9W ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Jerry. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 66.9 West. Jerry is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected on Monday, followed by a turn toward the northeast late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda late Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 20
2019-09-22 10:59:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 220859 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JERRY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 66.9W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 90SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 66.9W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 66.6W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 26.3N 67.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 27.6N 68.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.0N 68.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 30.4N 68.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 150SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 34.0N 65.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 110SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 39.0N 57.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 43.0N 47.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 66.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tags: number
storm
advisory
jerry
Tropical Storm Jerry Graphics
2019-09-22 04:40:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 02:40:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 03:24:52 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
jerry
tropical
Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 19
2019-09-22 04:39:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 220239 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 21 2019 Jerry's center is still exposed to the northwest of the bulk of the deep convection, although a new burst of thunderstorms is just now developing just to the southeast of the center. With no significant change to the storm's structure, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt, which matches a blend of final-T and CI numbers from TAFB and SAB. UW-CIMSS is depicting 15-20 kt of westerly shear over Jerry at the moment, although the analysis suggests that the cyclone could sneak into a slightly lower-shear environment during the next 12-24 hours. After that time, however, Jerry is expected to interact with a mid- to upper-level trough, putting the system under counterbalancing influences of strong shear but stronger divergence aloft. Because of these conditions, only small fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next 4 days or so. Jerry will be bumping up against a baroclinic zone while interacting with the trough, and it's likely that extratropical transition will at least commence while this system is over the western Atlantic. At this point, however, that transition is not expected to be complete before the end of the 5-day forecast period. The initial motion is northwestward, or 325/13 kt. Jerry is still expected to continue recurving around the subtropical ridge, interact with the western Atlantic trough in about 48 hours, and then become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies from day 3 onward. Except for a slight westward kink in the track between 48-72, resulting from Jerry's expected interaction with the trough, little change in the NHC track forecast was required from the previous one. Key Messages: 1. The risk of tropical-storm-force winds on Bermuda is increasing, with Jerry forecast to pass near the island Tuesday and Wednesday. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system may have on Bermuda, but interests there should monitor the progress of Jerry. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 24.1N 66.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 25.4N 67.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 26.7N 67.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 28.0N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 29.4N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 32.6N 66.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 36.8N 60.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 27/0000Z 40.8N 54.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: number
discussion
storm
jerry
Sites : [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] next »