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Tropical Storm Jerry Graphics
2019-09-22 22:38:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 20:38:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 21:25:24 GMT
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Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 22
2019-09-22 22:37:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 222037 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 Jerry continues to struggle to become better organized in an environment of moderate westerly vertical shear. The low-level center is near the western side of the main area of deep convection, and the overall cloud pattern remains rather ragged-looking. Flight-level, SFMR-observed, and Doppler wind data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the intensity remains near 55 kt. The dynamical guidance shows that the shear will remain rather strong throughout much of the forecast period, so the official forecast shows little change in strength for the next couple of days followed by gradual weakening. This is a little above the intensity model consensus. The motion is still north-northwestward or 345/8 kt. Jerry continues to move through a weakness in the subtropical ridge. In a couple of days, a mid-latitude trough moving off the northeast U.S. coast should cause the storm to turn north-northeastward to northeastward with a gradual increase in forward speed in the latter part of the forecast period, Jerry is likely to move east-northeastward at a faster speed, following the mid-level westerly flow. The official forecast is a bit slower than the previous one and leans toward the corrected dynamical model consensus, HCCA. Key Messages: 1. The risk of tropical-storm-force winds on Bermuda is increasing, with Jerry forecast to pass near the island Tuesday night and Wednesday. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system may have on Bermuda, but interests there should monitor the progress of Jerry. A Tropical Storm Watch could be issued tonight for Bermuda. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 26.7N 66.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 27.7N 67.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 29.0N 67.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 30.4N 68.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 31.8N 67.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 34.4N 63.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 37.0N 56.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 38.5N 50.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm Jerry (AT5/AL102019)
2019-09-22 22:36:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JERRY SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 22 the center of Jerry was located near 26.7, -66.9 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 22
2019-09-22 22:36:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 222036 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 ...JERRY SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.7N 66.9W ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Jerry. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 66.9 West. Jerry is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected on Monday, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Tuesday, and toward the northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2019-09-22 22:36:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 222036 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 15(23) 29(52) 1(53) X(53) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) 1(15) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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