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Tropical Storm Lidia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17

2017-09-02 22:42:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 02 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 022042 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142017 2100 UTC SAT SEP 02 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT S CATALINA IS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN DIEGO CA 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TIJUANA 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ENSENADA 34 1 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) IS GUADALUPE 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 19 X(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) 30N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA

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Summary for Tropical Storm Lidia (EP4/EP142017)

2017-09-02 22:41:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...LIDIA CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MAINLAND MEXICO... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Sep 2 the center of Lidia was located near 28.8, -115.0 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm Lidia Public Advisory Number 17

2017-09-02 22:41:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 02 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 022041 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lidia Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142017 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 02 2017 ...LIDIA CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MAINLAND MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.8N 115.0W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM N OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for mainland Mexico, the west coast of the Baja California peninsula, and the east coast of the Baja California peninsula south of Bahia San Juan Bautista. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The east coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan Bautista to Isla San Luis For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 115.0 West. Lidia is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and the system is expected to turn toward the west-northwest at about the same rate of forward speed during the next two days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Lidia is expected to weaken to a tropical depression tonight and become a remnant low on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. A Mexican Navy observation site at Isla Cedros recently recorded a wind gust of 39 mph (63 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Lidia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the Mexican states of Baja California Sur into Baja California and the coastal section of Sonora and northern Sinaloa, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. These rains may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Some of the tropical moisture from Lidia will spread across parts of the desert Southwest through this holiday weekend for an increase in scattered showers and thunderstorms, from southern Nevada and western Arizona into southern California. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the warning area in the Mexican state of Baja California, along the coast of the Gulf of California. These conditions should persist for the next few hours. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. STORM SURGE: Some coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds along the Baja California peninsula. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. SURF: Swells generated by Lidia are affecting portions of the coast of western mainland Mexico and the west coast of Baja California Sur. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM PDT. Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Landsea

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Tropical Storm Lidia Forecast Advisory Number 17

2017-09-02 22:40:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 02 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 022040 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142017 2100 UTC SAT SEP 02 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MAINLAND MEXICO... THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... AND THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SOUTH OF BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA TO ISLA SAN LUIS TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 115.0W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 115.0W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 114.6W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 29.6N 116.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 30.9N 118.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 31.8N 120.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 32.4N 122.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N 115.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA

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