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Tropical Storm Lidia Graphics

2017-09-03 01:36:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Sep 2017 23:36:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Sep 2017 21:29:39 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm Lidia (EP4/EP142017)

2017-09-03 01:31:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...LIDIA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER MEXICO... As of 5:00 PM PDT Sat Sep 2 the center of Lidia was located near 28.9, -115.1 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm Lidia Public Advisory Number 17A

2017-09-03 01:31:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 500 PM PDT Sat Sep 02 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 022331 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lidia Intermediate Advisory Number 17A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142017 500 PM PDT Sat Sep 02 2017 ...LIDIA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.9N 115.1W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM N OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The east coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan Bautista to Isla San Luis For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM PDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 115.1 West. Lidia is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight or tomorrow, and Lidia should continue on that heading until dissipation in a couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Lidia is expected to weaken to a tropical depression tonight and become a remnant low on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Lidia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the Mexican states of Baja California Sur into Baja California and the coastal section of Sonora and northern Sinaloa, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. These rains may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Some of the tropical moisture from Lidia will spread across parts of the desert Southwest through this holiday weekend for an increase in scattered showers and thunderstorms, from southern Nevada and western Arizona into southern California. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the warning area in the Mexican state of Baja California, along the coast of the Gulf of California. Winds in these locations are expected to decrease below tropical-storm-force during the next couple of hours. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. STORM SURGE: Some coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds along the Baja California peninsula. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. SURF: Swells generated by Lidia are affecting portions of the coast of western mainland Mexico and the west coast of Baja California Sur. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Tropical Storm Lidia Graphics

2017-09-02 22:49:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Sep 2017 20:49:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Sep 2017 21:29:39 GMT

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Tropical Storm Lidia Forecast Discussion Number 17

2017-09-02 22:42:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 02 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 022042 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142017 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 02 2017 Lidia's deep convection is becoming less organized and located increasingly farther away from the center of the tropical storm. This is likely due to the system being disrupted while traveling up the spine of the mountainous Baja California peninsula as well as the cold waters on the west side of the peninsula. Despite this, the system still has a robust surface circulation and the ASCAT scatterometer passes this afternoon showed 35 kt peak winds within the Gulf of California, which is the value used for the initial intensity. The tropical storm should continue weakening as it traverses cold SSTs and a less unstable, dry atmosphere. It is likely that deep convection associated with Lidia will cease in 12-24 hr marking the end of the system as a tropical cyclone. The official intensity forecast is the based upon the tightly clustered statistical and dynamical model guidance and is the same as the previous advisory. Lidia is moving toward the northwest at 10 kt while moving around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level subtropical ridge. The tropical storm should turn toward the west-northwest at about the same rate of speed as it weakens and moves along in the low-level tradewind flow. The official track forecast is based upon the usually reliable global models and is slightly north of the previous advisory. Despite the forecast weakening, the heavy rainfall threat will continue over northwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula through Sunday. Moisture from the cyclone should spread over portions of the southwestern United States through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 28.8N 115.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 29.6N 116.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 30.9N 118.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/0600Z 31.8N 120.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1800Z 32.4N 122.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea

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