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Tropical Storm Lidia Graphics
2017-09-01 16:54:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 01 Sep 2017 14:54:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 01 Sep 2017 15:34:17 GMT
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Tropical Storm Lidia Forecast Discussion Number 12
2017-09-01 16:50:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 01 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 011450 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142017 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 01 2017 Satellite imagery indicates that the center of Lidia has made landfall on the Baja California peninsula west of La Paz. The convective organization of the cyclone has decreased over the past several hours and, based on this and continuity from the previous advisory, the initial intensity is decreased to 50 kt. The storm continues to have a large wind field in the eastern semicircle as shown by a recent report of tropical-storm-force winds in Los Mochis on the Mexican mainland. The initial motion is 325/8. Lidia remains between a mid-level high centered over the southwestern United States and a mid-level trough southwest over the Pacific, and these features should keep Lidia on a general northwestward course for the next three days. The new forecast track has the center over or just off of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula for the next 30-36 h before emerging over the Pacific Ocean. Overall the new track is an update of the previous track that lies close to the various consensus models. Steady weakening is expected while the circulation interacts with the mountainous terrain of Baja California. However, tropical- storm-force winds will continue to extend well east of the center, riding up the peninsula and adjacent Gulf of California for at least the next 24 hours. When Lidia emerges over the Pacific, it is expected to be over sea surface temperatures near or below 24C, which should cause it to quickly decay to a remnant low. The new intensity forecast is also an update of the previous forecast and lies at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. While Lidia should steadily weaken, the heavy rainfall threat will continue over northwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. Moisture from the cyclone could reach the southwestern United States over the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 24.6N 111.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 12H 02/0000Z 25.8N 112.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 02/1200Z 27.4N 113.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 03/0000Z 28.6N 115.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 03/1200Z 29.9N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/1200Z 32.5N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Lidia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2017-09-01 16:50:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 01 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 011449 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142017 1500 UTC FRI SEP 01 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OXNARD CA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SANTA CRUZ IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LONG BEACH/LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) S CATALINA IS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN DIEGO CA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TIJUANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ENSENADA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) IS GUADALUPE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X 20(20) 31(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PUNTA EUGENIA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) P ABREOJOS 34 4 59(63) 2(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) P ABREOJOS 50 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) P ABREOJOS 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN JOSE CABO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LA PAZ 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LORETO 34 92 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) HERMOSILLO 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BAHIA KINO 34 X 16(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) GUAYMAS 34 2 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) HUATABAMPO 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LOS MOCHIS 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 30N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Lidia (EP4/EP142017)
2017-09-01 16:49:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CENTER OF LIDIA OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND PORTIONS OF MAINLAND MEXICO... As of 9:00 AM MDT Fri Sep 1 the center of Lidia was located near 24.6, -111.2 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Lidia Public Advisory Number 12
2017-09-01 16:49:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 01 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 011449 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lidia Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142017 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 01 2017 ...CENTER OF LIDIA OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND PORTIONS OF MAINLAND MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.6N 111.2W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WNW OF LA PAZ MEXICO ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM E OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from San Jose de Las Palomas to Isla San Luis * Mainland Mexico from Altata to Puerto Libertad A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in northwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Lidia. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was located over the Mexican state of Baja California Sur near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 111.2 West. Lidia is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia will move near or along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula through Saturday and then move west of the peninsula over the Pacific Ocean Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next couple of days while Lidia interacts with the mountainous terrain of the Baja California peninsula and moves over cold Pacific water. Lidia is expected to become a remnant low by Saturday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) mainly to the east of the center. Los Mochis on the Mexican mainland recently reported sustained winds of 45 mph (72 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Lidia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches across the Mexican states of Baja California Sur into Baja California, Sinaloa and the coastal section of Sonora, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. These rains may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Some of the tropical moisture from Lidia may reach parts of the desert Southwest this holiday weekend, including southern California, southern Nevada and southwestern Arizona. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over the southern portion of Baja California Sur and over portions of the Mexican mainland at this time. These conditions should spread northward across the warning areas of the Baja California peninsula and mainland Mexico through Saturday. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds on the southern portion of Baja California Sur. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Lidia are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern and western Mexico and southern portions of Baja California Sur, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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