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Tropical Storm Lidia Forecast Discussion Number 14
2017-09-02 04:36:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Sep 01 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 020236 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142017 900 PM MDT Fri Sep 01 2017 The terrain of the Baja California peninsula has taken a toll on Lidia. The cloud pattern has become disorganized, and deep convection has decreased with only a few strong patches remaining near the center. Based on tonight's satellite intensity estimates and continuity, the initial intensity is generously set at 45 kt. It appears that the strongest winds are occurring in the eastern half of the circulation and mainly over the Sea of Cortes. The interaction with land and cold waters will result in additional weakening, and Lidia is forecast to be a remnant low in about 24 to 36 hours or even sooner. Lidia has continued on a steady motion toward northwest or 320 degrees at 10 kt. The flow pattern resulting from a high over Mexico and a large low to the west will continue to steer Lidia northwestward for a day or two. Thereafter, Lidia is expected to be a shallow cyclone steered by the low-level easterly flow. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and is close to the multi-model consensus. Despite weakening, the heavy rainfall threat will continue over northwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days. Moisture from the cyclone could reach the southwestern United States over the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 26.4N 112.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 27.6N 114.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 03/0000Z 29.0N 115.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 03/1200Z 30.0N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/0000Z 31.5N 119.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/0000Z 33.0N 124.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0000Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Storm Lidia (EP4/EP142017)
2017-09-02 04:36:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...LIDIA FORECAST TO WEAKEN BUT EXPECTED TO DUMP ADDITIONAL RAIN... As of 9:00 PM MDT Fri Sep 1 the center of Lidia was located near 26.4, -112.9 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Lidia Public Advisory Number 14
2017-09-02 04:36:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Sep 01 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 020236 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lidia Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142017 900 PM MDT Fri Sep 01 2017 ...LIDIA FORECAST TO WEAKEN BUT EXPECTED TO DUMP ADDITIONAL RAIN... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.4N 112.9W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSW OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the west coast of the Baja California peninsula south of Puerto Cortes, and for the east coast of the peninsula south of San Evaristo. The Tropical Storm Warning for mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito has also been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The west coast of the Baja California peninsula from San Jose de Las Palomas to Puerto Cortes * The east coast of the Baja California peninsula from Isla San Luis to San Evaristo * Mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Puerto Libertad Interests elsewhere in northwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Lidia. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was located near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 112.9 West. Lidia is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia will move near or along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula for the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Lidia is expected to become a remnant low Saturday night or on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) mainly to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Lidia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the Mexican states of Baja California Sur into Baja California and the coastal section of Sonora and northern Sinaloa, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. These rains may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Some of the tropical moisture from Lidia will spread across parts of the desert Southwest this holiday weekend for an increase in scattered showers and thunderstorms, from southern Nevada and western Arizona into southern California. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area over portions of Baja California Sur and over portions of the Mexican mainland at this time. These conditions should spread northward across the warning areas of the Baja California peninsula and mainland Mexico through Saturday. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in Baja California Sur. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. SURF: Swells generated by Lidia are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern and western Mexico and southern portions of Baja California Sur, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Lidia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2017-09-02 04:36:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 02 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 020236 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142017 0300 UTC SAT SEP 02 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ IS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) S CATALINA IS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN DIEGO CA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TIJUANA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ENSENADA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) IS GUADALUPE 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 13 14(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P ABREOJOS 34 44 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) P ABREOJOS 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BAHIA KINO 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GUAYMAS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 30N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tropical Storm Lidia Forecast Advisory Number 14
2017-09-02 04:35:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 02 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 020235 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142017 0300 UTC SAT SEP 02 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SOUTH OF PUERTO CORTES...AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE PENINSULA SOUTH OF SAN EVARISTO. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MAINLAND MEXICO SOUTH OF HUATABAMPITO HAS ALSO BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS TO PUERTO CORTES * THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM ISLA SAN LUIS TO SAN EVARISTO * MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LIDIA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 112.9W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 120SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 210SE 90SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 112.9W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 112.5W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 27.6N 114.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 29.0N 115.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 30.0N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 31.5N 119.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 33.0N 124.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.4N 112.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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