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Tropical Storm Lidia Public Advisory Number 13A
2017-09-02 01:34:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 600 PM MDT Fri Sep 01 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 012334 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lidia Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142017 600 PM MDT Fri Sep 01 2017 ...LIDIA SPREADING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.0N 112.2W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM W OF LORETO MEXICO ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM N OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...55 MPH...90 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The west coast of the Baja California peninsula from San Jose de Las Palomas to Todos Santos * The east coast of the Baja California peninsula from Isla San Luis to Los Barriles * Mainland Mexico from Altata to Puerto Libertad Interests elsewhere in northwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Lidia. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was located near latitude 26.0 North, longitude 112.2 West. Lidia is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia will move near or along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula through Saturday, and then move west of the peninsula over the Pacific Ocean by Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 55 mph (90 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days while Lidia interacts with the mountainous terrain of the Baja California peninsula and moves over cold Pacific waters. Lidia is expected to become a remnant low by Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) mainly to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Lidia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches across the Mexican states of Baja California Sur into Baja California, Sinaloa and the coastal section of Sonora, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. These rains may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Some of the tropical moisture from Lidia may reach parts of the desert Southwest this holiday weekend, including southern California, southern Nevada and southwestern Arizona. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area over the southern and central portions of Baja California Sur and over portions of the Mexican mainland at this time. These conditions should spread northward across the warning areas of the Baja California peninsula and mainland Mexico through Saturday. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds on the southern portion of Baja California Sur. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Lidia are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern and western Mexico and southern portions of Baja California Sur, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Lidia Graphics
2017-09-01 22:40:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 01 Sep 2017 20:40:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 01 Sep 2017 21:30:55 GMT
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Tropical Storm Lidia Forecast Discussion Number 13
2017-09-01 22:35:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Sep 01 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 012035 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142017 300 PM MDT Fri Sep 01 2017 The center of Lidia has been moving over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula. While the convective cloud pattern has become somewhat ragged, a recent surface observation from Loreto, Mexico indicates that maximum sustained winds remain near 50 kt. The storm also continues to have a large wind field in the eastern semicircle as shown by a prolonged period of tropical- storm-force winds at Los Mochis on the Mexican mainland. Weakening is expected while the circulation interacts with the mountainous terrain of Baja California. However, tropical-storm- force winds will continue to extend well east of the center, riding up the peninsula and adjacent Gulf of California for about the next 24 hours. When Lidia emerges over the Pacific, it is expected to be over sea surface temperatures near or below 24C, which should cause it to quickly decay to a remnant low. The latest large-scale model guidance suggests that a circulation should persist through 96 h, possibly due to interaction with a nearby mid- to upper-level low late in the forecast period. Thus, a 96 h point has been included. The initial motion is now 325/10. Lidia remains between a mid-level high centered over the southwestern United States and the aforementioned mid- to upper-level trough to the southwest and south over the Pacific, and these features should keep the cyclone on a general northwestward course for the next 72 h or so, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest. The new forecast track has the center over or just off of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula for the next 18-24 h before emerging over the Pacific Ocean. Overall the new track is an update of the previous track that lies close to, but is slightly faster than, the various consensus models. While Lidia should weaken, the heavy rainfall threat will continue over northwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. Moisture from the cyclone could reach the southwestern United States over the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 25.5N 111.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 12H 02/0600Z 26.8N 113.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 02/1800Z 28.2N 114.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 03/0600Z 29.4N 116.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 03/1800Z 30.7N 118.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/1800Z 33.0N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1800Z 34.0N 127.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Storm Lidia (EP4/EP142017)
2017-09-01 22:35:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CENTER OF LIDIA CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND PORTIONS OF MAINLAND MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM MDT Fri Sep 1 the center of Lidia was located near 25.5, -111.9 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Lidia Public Advisory Number 13
2017-09-01 22:35:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Sep 01 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 012035 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lidia Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142017 300 PM MDT Fri Sep 01 2017 ...CENTER OF LIDIA CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND PORTIONS OF MAINLAND MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.5N 111.9W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SW OF LORETO MEXICO ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NNE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula from Todos Santos to Los Barriles. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The west coast of the Baja California peninsula from San Jose de Las Palomas to Todos Santos * The east coast of the Baja California peninsula from Isla San Luis to Los Barriles * Mainland Mexico from Altata to Puerto Libertad Interests elsewhere in northwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Lidia. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 111.9 West. Lidia is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia will move near or along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula through Saturday and then move west of the peninsula over the Pacific Ocean late Saturday or Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days while Lidia interacts with the mountainous terrain of the Baja California peninsula and moves over cold Pacific water. Lidia is expected to become a remnant low by Saturday night or Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) mainly to the east of the center. A Mexican automated station near Loreto recently reported sustained winds of 53 mph (85 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Lidia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches across the Mexican states of Baja California Sur into Baja California, Sinaloa and the coastal section of Sonora, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. These rains may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Some of the tropical moisture from Lidia may reach parts of the desert Southwest this holiday weekend, including southern California, southern Nevada and southwestern Arizona. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area over the southern and central portions of Baja California Sur and over portions of the Mexican mainland at this time. These conditions should spread northward across the warning areas of the Baja California peninsula and mainland Mexico through Saturday. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds on the southern portion of Baja California Sur. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Lidia are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern and western Mexico and southern portions of Baja California Sur, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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