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Summary for Tropical Storm Lidia (EP4/EP142017)
2017-09-02 19:45:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...LIDIA REMAINS A TROPICAL STORM NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... As of 12:00 PM MDT Sat Sep 2 the center of Lidia was located near 28.3, -114.6 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Lidia Public Advisory Number 16A
2017-09-02 19:45:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Sat Sep 02 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 021745 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lidia Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142017 1200 PM MDT Sat Sep 02 2017 ...LIDIA REMAINS A TROPICAL STORM NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.3N 114.6W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The west coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to San Jose de Las Palomas * The east coast of the Baja California peninsula from Mulege to Isla San Luis * Mainland Mexico from Guaymas to Puerto Libertad Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California and Sonora should monitor the progress of Lidia. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was located near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 114.6 West, just offshore of the southern part of the state of Baja California. Lidia is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Sunday night. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts, mainly over the Gulf of California well to the east of the center. Additional weakening is forecast, and Lidia is expected to become a tropical depression later today and a remnant low pressure area tonight or Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Lidia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the Mexican states of Baja California Sur into Baja California and the coastal section of Sonora and northern Sinaloa, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. These rains may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Some of the tropical moisture from Lidia will spread across parts of the desert Southwest through this holiday weekend for an increase in scattered showers and thunderstorms, from southern Nevada and western Arizona into southern California. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the warning area in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Baja California, and Sonora, especially near the coast of the Gulf of California. These conditions should persist for the next few hours. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. STORM SURGE: Some coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds along the Baja California peninsula. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. SURF: Swells generated by Lidia are affecting portions of the coast of western mainland Mexico and the west coast of Baja California Sur. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Lidia Graphics
2017-09-02 16:59:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Sep 2017 14:59:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Sep 2017 15:30:50 GMT
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Tropical Storm Lidia Forecast Discussion Number 16
2017-09-02 16:54:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Sep 02 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 021454 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142017 900 AM MDT Sat Sep 02 2017 Lidia has become less organized since the previous advisory, with satellite imagery suggesting that the low-level and mid-level centers have become decoupled. In addition, the coverage of deep convection has diminished significantly, and there are no recent observations of sustained tropical-storm-force winds. The initial intensity will be lowered to 35 kt based on the premise that these winds are still occurring over the Gulf of California. Lidia should continue to weaken as the center moves over the cold waters west of the northern Baja California peninsula, and the system is expected to degenerate into a remnant low in 24 h or less. The NHC forecast will continue to show a remnant low at 72 h, but as noted in the previous advisory it is unclear whether this will be Lidia or another low pressure area that absorbs the remnants of Lidia. The initial motion is 315/10 along the south side a mid-tropospheric high centered over the southwestern United States, and this motion should continue for the next 36 h or so. After that, a turn toward the west-northwest is expected due to interaction with a mid- to upper-level low currently seen in water vapor imagery well to the west of the Baja California peninsula. The new forecast track is an update of the previous track and lies in the center of the tightly-clustered track guidance. Despite the ongoing and forecast weakening, the heavy rainfall threat will continue over northwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula through Sunday. Moisture from the cyclone should spread over portions of the southwestern United States through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 27.9N 114.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...ON COAST 12H 03/0000Z 28.9N 115.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 03/1200Z 30.2N 117.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/0000Z 31.4N 119.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1200Z 32.1N 121.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1200Z 33.5N 126.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Lidia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2017-09-02 16:53:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 02 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 021453 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142017 1500 UTC SAT SEP 02 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ IS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) S CATALINA IS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN DIEGO CA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TIJUANA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ENSENADA 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) IS GUADALUPE 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 23 X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) P ABREOJOS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BAHIA KINO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 30N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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