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Tropical Storm Lidia Public Advisory Number 15A
2017-09-02 13:41:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 600 AM MDT Sat Sep 02 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 021141 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lidia Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142017 600 AM MDT Sat Sep 02 2017 ...CENTER OF LIDIA MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.5N 114.0W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM ESE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The west coast of the Baja California peninsula from Puerto San Andresito to San Jose de Las Palomas * The east coast of the Baja California peninsula from Loreto to Isla San Luis * Mainland Mexico from Guaymas to Puerto Libertad Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California and Sonora should monitor the progress of Lidia. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was located over Baja California Sur near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 114.0 West. Lidia is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Sunday. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by Sunday night. On the forecast track, Lidia's center will move near or along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula through tonight and then gradually move away from land on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Lidia is expected to become a tropical depression tonight and then a remnant low on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) mainly to the northeast and southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Lidia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the Mexican states of Baja California Sur into Baja California and the coastal section of Sonora and northern Sinaloa, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. These rains may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Some of the tropical moisture from Lidia will spread across parts of the desert Southwest later this holiday weekend for an increase in scattered showers and thunderstorms, from southern Nevada and western Arizona into southern California. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the warning area in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Baja California, and Sonora. These conditions should spread northward across the remainder of the warning areas through the day. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. STORM SURGE: Some coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds along the Baja California peninsula. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. SURF: Swells generated by Lidia are affecting portions of the coast of western mainland Mexico and the west coast of Baja California Sur. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Lidia Graphics
2017-09-02 10:59:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Sep 2017 08:59:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Sep 2017 09:32:35 GMT
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Tropical Storm Lidia Forecast Discussion Number 15
2017-09-02 10:53:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 02 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 020853 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142017 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 02 2017 Lidia's convection has a rather amorphous pattern in infrared satellite imagery this morning, but earlier microwave images indicate that the storm still has some banding features. The center has moved inland again and is now located over northern Baja California Sur. Since the center is over land and cloud tops are gradually warming, the advisory intensity is set at 40 kt, which is slightly below the average of the latest Dvorak CI numbers. The strongest winds are likely occurring well to the north and east of the center over the Gulf of California. Continued weakening is expected since Lidia will be moving over the rugged terrain of the Baja California peninsula and then over the cold waters off the peninsula's west coast. Lidia should lose its deep convection over the cold waters by 36 hours, at which point it would become a remnant low. The global models generally keep Lidia as a separate and distinct vorticity maximum through at least 48 hours, but they then show it merging or becoming absorbed by a larger area of vorticity by day 3. The NHC forecast continues to show a day 3 point for continuity, but whatever surface low exists at that time is likely to be a new and separate feature. Lidia continues to move northwestward (320/10 kt) along the southern edge of a mid-tropospheric high centered over the southwestern United States, and this motion should continue for the next 36 hours. A bend toward the west-northwest is expected after that time due to Lidia's interaction with a mid-/upper-level low currently located well to the west of the Baja California peninsula. Lidia should re-emerge off the west coast of the Baja California peninsula later today and then gradually move away from land over the next few days. Despite weakening, the heavy rainfall threat will continue over northwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula through Sunday. Moisture from the cyclone could reach the southwestern United States over the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 27.2N 113.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 02/1800Z 28.3N 114.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 03/0600Z 29.6N 116.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 30.8N 118.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/0600Z 31.9N 120.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/0600Z 33.1N 125.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm Lidia (EP4/EP142017)
2017-09-02 10:52:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...LIDIA'S CENTER MOVES INLAND AGAIN OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 3:00 AM MDT Sat Sep 2 the center of Lidia was located near 27.2, -113.6 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Lidia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2017-09-02 10:52:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 02 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 020852 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142017 0900 UTC SAT SEP 02 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ IS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LONG BEACH/LA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) S CATALINA IS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN DIEGO CA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TIJUANA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ENSENADA 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) IS GUADALUPE 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 15 7(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) P ABREOJOS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BAHIA KINO 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 30N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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