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Tropical Storm Lidia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2017-09-01 22:35:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 01 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 012035 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142017 2100 UTC FRI SEP 01 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OXNARD CA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SANTA CRUZ IS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) LONG BEACH/LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) S CATALINA IS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN DIEGO CA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) TIJUANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ENSENADA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) IS GUADALUPE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 3 12(15) 6(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P ABREOJOS 34 22 14(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) P ABREOJOS 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LORETO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HERMOSILLO 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BAHIA KINO 34 9 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GUAYMAS 34 13 X(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) HUATABAMPO 34 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) LOS MOCHIS 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 30N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Lidia Forecast Advisory Number 13
2017-09-01 22:34:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 01 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 012034 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142017 2100 UTC FRI SEP 01 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM TODOS SANTOS TO LOS BARRILES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS TO TODOS SANTOS * THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM ISLA SAN LUIS TO LOS BARRILES * MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO PUERTO LIBERTAD INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LIDIA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 111.9W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......170NE 160SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 90SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 111.9W AT 01/2100Z...INLAND AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 111.6W...INLAND FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 26.8N 113.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 28.2N 114.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 29.4N 116.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 30.7N 118.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 33.0N 123.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 34.0N 127.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 111.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Lidia Graphics
2017-09-01 19:39:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 01 Sep 2017 17:39:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 01 Sep 2017 15:34:17 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Lidia (EP4/EP142017)
2017-09-01 19:38:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CENTER OF LIDIA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND PORTIONS OF MAINLAND MEXICO... As of 12:00 PM MDT Fri Sep 1 the center of Lidia was located near 25.0, -111.6 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Lidia Public Advisory Number 12A
2017-09-01 19:38:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Fri Sep 01 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 011738 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lidia Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142017 1200 PM MDT Fri Sep 01 2017 ...CENTER OF LIDIA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND PORTIONS OF MAINLAND MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 111.6W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ENE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NW OF LA PAZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from San Jose de Las Palomas to Isla San Luis * Mainland Mexico from Altata to Puerto Libertad A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in northwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Lidia. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was located over the Mexican state of Baja California Sur near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 111.6 West. Lidia is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia will move near or along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula through Saturday and then move west of the peninsula over the Pacific Ocean Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days while Lidia interacts with the mountainous terrain of the Baja California peninsula and moves over cold Pacific water. Lidia is expected to become a remnant low by Saturday night or Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) mainly to the east of the center. Los Mochis recently reported sustained winds of 45 mph (72 km/h), and a Mexican automated station near Loreto recently reported sustained winds of 43 mph (69 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Lidia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches across the Mexican states of Baja California Sur into Baja California, Sinaloa and the coastal section of Sonora, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. These rains may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Some of the tropical moisture from Lidia may reach parts of the desert Southwest this holiday weekend, including southern California, southern Nevada and southwestern Arizona. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over the southern portion of Baja California Sur and over portions of the Mexican mainland at this time. These conditions should spread northward across the warning areas of the Baja California peninsula and mainland Mexico through Saturday. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds on the southern portion of Baja California Sur. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Lidia are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern and western Mexico and southern portions of Baja California Sur, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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