je.st
news
Tag: tropical depression
Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Graphics
2015-11-18 22:04:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Nov 2015 20:40:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Nov 2015 21:04:48 GMT
Tags: graphics
tropical
depression
tropical depression
Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2015-11-18 21:39:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM MST WED NOV 18 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 182039 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 200 PM MST WED NOV 18 2015 Overall, the cyclone's cloud pattern has changed little in organization since the previous advisory. The center of the depression is on the southeastern edge of a large cluster of deep convection, indicative of a continuation of moderate southeasterly shear. A well-defined swirl is also seen in visible satellite imagery, rotating around the south side of the estimated mean center. Satellite intensity estimates are a consensus T2.0 from TAFB and SAB, and the initial intensity estimate is held at 30 kt. The center has been moving erratically during the last 6 to 12 hours, with fixes during this time indicating a nearly stationary initial motion. The tail of a deep mid- to upper-level trough over the central United States extends southwestward to just north of the depression, which has created a weakness near 110W. The weakness has created a weak steering environment that should persist for about the next 12 to 24 hours and result in the depression's moving erratically or slowly northward around a weak mid-level high to the east. A turn toward the northwest and then west-northwest is expected after that time with an increase in forward speed when a mid-level anticyclone over the Gulf of Mexico builds westward into the eastern Pacific to the north of the cyclone. After that time, a trough currently between 130W and 140W in the subtropics is forecast to eject eastward toward the cyclone and result in a northward turn in 96 hours. The new track forecast is much faster than the previous forecast and adjusted to the left, especially beyond 48 hours, but is not as far west as the multi-model consensus. SHIPS model output indicates a lessening of southeasterly shear over the depression within 24 hours, with the shear remaining relatively low through about 72 hours. Meanwhile, the lower- to mid- tropospheric moisture is forecast to decrease some and be only marginally conducive for strengthening. However, since the cyclone should be over anomalously warm waters during this period, intensification is forecast, especially after the shear decreases. After 72 hours, a tremendous increase in southwesterly shear ahead of the trough advancing from the west should result in rapid weakening, with remnant low status likely in 96 to 120 hours. The new intensity forecast is a bit higher than the previous one in agreement with the latest SHIPS/LGEM guidance and remains slightly above the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 12.8N 107.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 13.4N 107.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 14.3N 108.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 15.2N 110.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 15.6N 111.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 17.2N 114.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 18.6N 115.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 20.5N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Summary for Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E (EP1/EP212015)
2015-11-18 21:38:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION NEARLY STATIONARY... As of 2:00 PM MST Wed Nov 18 the center of TWENTY-ONE-E was located near 12.8, -107.0 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tags: summary
tropical
depression
tropical depression
Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Public Advisory Number 2
2015-11-18 21:38:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM MST WED NOV 18 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 182038 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 200 PM MST WED NOV 18 2015 ...DEPRESSION NEARLY STATIONARY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.8N 107.0W ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 107.0 West. The depression is nearly stationary. An erratic or slow northward motion is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest and then the west-northwest with an increase in forward speed on Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression should become a tropical storm on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
Tags: number
public
advisory
tropical
Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2015-11-18 21:38:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED NOV 18 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 182038 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 2100 UTC WED NOV 18 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 8(16) 1(17) X(17) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 28(32) 3(35) X(35) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Tags: number
speed
wind
tropical
Sites : [1131] [1132] [1133] [1134] [1135] [1136] [1137] [1138] [1139] [1140] [1141] [1142] [1143] [1144] [1145] [1146] [1147] [1148] [1149] [1150] next »