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Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2015-11-18 21:38:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED NOV 18 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 182038 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 2100 UTC WED NOV 18 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 107.0W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 107.0W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 107.0W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 13.4N 107.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 14.3N 108.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.2N 110.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.6N 111.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.2N 114.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 18.6N 115.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 20.5N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 107.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Graphics
2015-11-18 20:20:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Nov 2015 19:20:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Nov 2015 15:55:50 GMT
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Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2015-11-18 16:57:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM MDT WED NOV 18 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 181557 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 1000 AM MDT WED NOV 18 2015 The circulation associated with the low pressure system located several hundred miles south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California has become well-defined overnight according to scatterometer data. These data and first-light visible satellite imagery also indicate the that center of the cyclone is near the southeastern edge of large mass of cold-topped convection, suggesting the presence of some southeasterly shear. A Dvorak classification of T2.0 from TAFB, along with the earlier scatterometer data, is used to set the intensity to 30 kt. Since the history of fixes on this system is short, the initial motion estimate of 360/02 is somewhat uncertain. A deep trough over the central United States has created a significant weakness along 110W, which has made for a weak steering environment around the depression. However, a weak mid-level anticyclone to the south of mainland Mexico has been imparting a slow northward motion. This motion should continue for another 24 hours, at which time a mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to build westward into the eastern Pacific when the central U.S. trough lifts out. The building ridge should result in a northwestward and then a west-northwestward track through 72 hours. After that time, a trough currently between 130W and 140W in the subtropics is forecast to eject eastward toward the cyclone and result in its recurvature in about 96 hours. The official forecast track is on the left side of the guidance envelope, closest to the ECMWF and GFS solutions, and generally near the multi-model consensus. There are mixed signals on the potential for intensification in the short term. Although the waters are anomalously warm, some southeasterly shear is likely to continue to affect the cyclone over the next day or two, along with some drying of the lower to middle troposphere. These large-scale conditions suggest that some strengthening should occur, but it likely would be tempered by these two negative factors. Around 72 hours, the cyclone should encounter an environment of increasing south-southwesterly or southwesterly shear associated with the trough advancing from the west and rapidly weaken, likely becoming a remnant low by day 5, if not sooner. The official intensity forecast is a little above the multi-model consensus and closest to the ECMWF SHIPS output. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1600Z 13.0N 107.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 13.3N 107.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 13.8N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 14.8N 108.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 15.8N 110.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 16.4N 113.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 18.1N 114.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 20.5N 114.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Graphics
2015-11-18 16:56:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Nov 2015 15:56:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Nov 2015 15:55:50 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E (EP1/EP212015)
2015-11-18 16:55:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...LATE-SEASON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM MDT Wed Nov 18 the center of TWENTY-ONE-E was located near 13.0, -107.2 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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