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Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Public Advisory Number 1
2015-11-18 16:55:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM MDT WED NOV 18 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 181555 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 1000 AM MDT WED NOV 18 2015 ...LATE-SEASON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM MDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.0N 107.2W ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM MDT (1600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 107.2 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north-northwest and then northwest is expected Thursday and Friday with an increase in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2015-11-18 16:55:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1600 UTC WED NOV 18 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 181555 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 1600 UTC WED NOV 18 2015 AT 1600Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) 1(15) 1(16) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 4(16) X(16) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2015-11-18 16:54:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1600 UTC WED NOV 18 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 181554 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 1600 UTC WED NOV 18 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 107.2W AT 18/1600Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 107.2W AT 18/1600Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 107.2W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 13.3N 107.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 13.8N 107.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 14.8N 108.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.8N 110.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.4N 113.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 18.1N 114.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 20.5N 114.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 107.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Depression TWELVE Graphics
2015-11-09 12:49:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Nov 2015 11:49:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Nov 2015 09:03:47 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression TWELVE (AT2/AL122015)
2015-11-09 12:46:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... As of 7:00 AM EST Mon Nov 9 the center of TWELVE was located near 23.9, -75.0 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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