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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 8
2015-10-16 22:32:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 16 2015 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 162032 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 2100 UTC FRI OCT 16 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 126.2W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 126.2W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 125.6W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 9.4N 127.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 9.4N 129.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 9.5N 131.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 10.0N 132.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 11.3N 135.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 13.4N 138.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 15.5N 140.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.5N 126.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Graphics
2015-10-16 17:09:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 16 Oct 2015 14:43:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 16 Oct 2015 15:05:48 GMT
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 7
2015-10-16 16:44:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 161444 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 800 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015 The depression's cloud pattern consists of a recently formed cluster of deep convection and fragmented convective banding features around the outer circulation. An 0910 UTC AMSR-2 overpass suggested that the center was underneath this newly formed convective burst, which would place it a little south of previous position estimates and open the possibility that the center recently reformed. An expansive upper-level outflow is also noted in association with the cyclone. Dvorak intensity estimates are unchanged from 6 hours ago, so the initial intensity estimate remains 25 kt. It is unclear why the cyclone has not yet responded by intensifying in a large-scale environment of light shear, a relatively moist mid-troposphere, and very warm waters. Perhaps the structure of the circulation has been a limiting factor. Regardless, global models continue to develop a hurricane in the far western portion of the eastern Pacific basin within a few days. The statistical and dynamical intensity guidance is quite similar this cycle, though the statistical output is slightly lower than before as a result of the cyclone's not intensifying yet. The official intensity forecast continues to indicate strengthening at a rate very similar to the multi-model consensus. The initial motion estimate is a little faster and just south of due west or 265/14. The cyclone is forecast to maintain a generally westward motion underneath a subtropical ridge to the north during the next few days and decelerate as the tail of a mid- to upper- level trough extending from the U.S. west coast causes the ridge to weaken. A further weakening of the ridge after 48 hours should cause the cyclone to begin to gain more latitude, and an encounter with a more significant weakness west of 140W should result in an even more poleward track by 96 hours. The track guidance has shifted significantly to the left this cycle and is a bit faster, and the official track forecast follows that trend but is on the right-side of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 9.7N 125.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 9.6N 127.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 9.6N 129.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 9.6N 130.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 9.9N 132.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 10.9N 135.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 12.8N 137.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 14.9N 140.5W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2015-10-16 16:42:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 16 2015 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 161442 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 1500 UTC FRI OCT 16 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Summary for Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E (EP4/EP192015)
2015-10-16 16:42:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION STILL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 the center of NINETEEN-E was located near 9.7, -125.2 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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