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Tropical Depression TWENTY-E Graphics

2015-10-20 16:55:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 20 Oct 2015 14:55:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 20 Oct 2015 14:54:51 GMT

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Tropical Depression TWENTY-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

2015-10-20 16:55:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 20 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 201454 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 1500 UTC TUE OCT 20 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) X(22) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 25(31) X(31) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 25(41) X(41) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) X(15) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 27(45) X(45) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) X(15) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 27(31) 13(44) X(44) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 23(28) 7(35) X(35) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ACAPULCO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 11(22) 3(25) X(25) ACAPULCO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P MALDONADO 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 5(16) 1(17) X(17) P ANGEL 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HUATULCO 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) X(22) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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Summary for Tropical Depression TWENTY-E (EP5/EP202015)

2015-10-20 16:55:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... As of 10:00 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 the center of TWENTY-E was located near 13.3, -94.4 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression TWENTY-E Public Advisory Number 1

2015-10-20 16:55:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 201454 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 1000 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 94.4W ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SE OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM ESE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-E was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 94.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). A turn toward the west-southwest with some increase in forward speed is expected later today and tonight. A turn toward the west and then the west-northwest is forecast on Wednesday with some further increase in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today and reach hurricane strength on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain

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Tropical Depression TWENTY-E Forecast Advisory Number 1

2015-10-20 16:54:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 20 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 201453 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 1500 UTC TUE OCT 20 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 94.4W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 94.4W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 94.3W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 13.0N 95.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 12.8N 97.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 12.9N 98.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.9N 101.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.3N 103.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 20.5N 104.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 94.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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