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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Graphics
2015-10-16 22:51:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 16 Oct 2015 20:34:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 16 Oct 2015 20:50:46 GMT
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 8
2015-10-16 22:33:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 162033 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 200 PM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015 The depression's cloud pattern has increased in organization since yesterday. A small CDO-like feature appears to be forming over the estimated low-level center. There has also been an increase in banding features and their associated curvature, especially over the western half of the circulation. Dvorak intensity estimates have increased some, and the initial intensity estimate is raised to 30 kt. Recent fixes suggest that the depression may be slowing down, and the initial motion estimate could be slightly slower than the longer-term motion of 265/13. The cyclone is forecast to maintain a general westward course underneath a mid-level subtropical ridge during the next 24 to 36 hours but decelerate as the tail of a mid- to upper- level trough, extending from the U.S. west coast, causes the ridge to weaken. As the ridge weakens further by 36 hours, the cyclone should begin to gain more latitude. An even greater in increase in latitude is expected after 96 hours when the cyclone encounters a more significant weakness west of 140W. The official track forecast has changed very little compared to the previous one and is near the multi-model consensus throughout the forecast period. With the increased organization of the cyclone's central features, intensification seems likely in an environment characterized by very warm SSTs, low shear, and a moist mid-troposphere. In fact, the SHIPS RI index shows a 65 percent chance of a 25-kt increase in intensity during the next 24 hours. The official intensity forecast is raised relative to the previous one, especially during the early part of the forecast. Given the very conducive large-scale environment for intensification, it would not be surprising to see more occur than what is currently forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 9.5N 126.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 9.4N 127.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 9.4N 129.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 9.5N 131.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 10.0N 132.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 11.3N 135.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 13.4N 138.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 21/1800Z 15.5N 140.6W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Summary for Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E (EP4/EP192015)
2015-10-16 22:32:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 the center of NINETEEN-E was located near 9.5, -126.2 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Public Advisory Number 8
2015-10-16 22:32:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 162032 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 200 PM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015 ...DEPRESSION GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.5N 126.2W ABOUT 1420 MI...2285 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E was located near latitude 9.5 North, longitude 126.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected by Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight and a hurricane on Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2015-10-16 22:32:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 16 2015 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 162032 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 2100 UTC FRI OCT 16 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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