je.st
news
Tag: tropical depression
Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 24
2020-10-14 22:33:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 142033 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020 Vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air are clearly taking a toll on Norbert. Infrared cloud top temperatures have rapidly warmed as Norbert has lost most, if not all, of its deep convection. Water vapor imagery shows a tongue of dry air drawn into the cyclone's circulation by a mid-level low pressure system centered to the west of Norbert. If current trends continue, Norbert could degenerate into a remnant low tonight or early Thursday. The advisory intensity is lowered to 30 kt based on a 1750Z ASCAT-B overpass that showed 25-30 kt winds in the northern semicircle of Norbert. This is consistent with T2.0 subjective Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB. Norbert has moved a bit faster than was previously forecast, and its initial motion is estimated at 330/15 kt. The track guidance consensus depicts a northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed through tonight as the depression moves between a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and the aforementioned mid-level low. A slow northward turn is expected on Thursday. The NHC track forecast was adjusted slightly to the right of the previous forecast based on 12Z global model trends. Norbert will continue weakening during the next day or so in an environment characterized by 20-25 kt of deep-layer shear, dry mid-level air, and low oceanic heat content. The official intensity forecast shows remnant low status at 24 h and dissipation at 36 h, which is consistent with the consensus of reliable global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 24.7N 114.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 25.9N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 26.9N 115.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Beven
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Summary for Tropical Depression Norbert (EP4/EP192020)
2020-10-14 22:32:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SHEARED NORBERT WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 3:00 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 the center of Norbert was located near 24.7, -114.9 with movement NNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tags: summary
tropical
depression
tropical depression
Tropical Depression Norbert Public Advisory Number 24
2020-10-14 22:32:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 142032 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Norbert Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020 ...SHEARED NORBERT WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.7N 114.9W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM W OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Norbert was located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 114.9 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected tonight, followed by a slower northward motion on Thursday. Satellite-derived wind data indicate maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next day or so, and Norbert is expected to become a remnant low tonight or Thursday. The remnant low is forecast to dissipate by Thursday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Beven
Tags: number
public
advisory
tropical
Tropical Depression Norbert Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2020-10-14 22:32:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 14 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 142032 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 2100 UTC WED OCT 14 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 115W 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Tags: number
speed
wind
tropical
Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 24
2020-10-14 22:32:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 14 2020 235 WTPZ24 KNHC 142032 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 2100 UTC WED OCT 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 114.9W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 114.9W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 114.7W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 25.9N 115.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 26.9N 115.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 114.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Tags: number
advisory
tropical
depression
Sites : [232] [233] [234] [235] [236] [237] [238] [239] [240] [241] [242] [243] [244] [245] [246] [247] [248] [249] [250] [251] next »